Moderna’s stock rose 66% in January as its coronavirus vaccine was licensed in a wide range of countries, including the United States.
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Modern (MRNA) joined Pfizer (PFE) and partner BioNTech (BNTX) with a Covid-19 vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration in December. Both vaccines use RNA messenger technology to determine an immune response.
During JP Morgan Healthcare’s annual conference, CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company has licenses in more than 30 countries. This includes Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Europe and Israel. This is Moderna’s first commercial product.
Shares of Moderna shares hit a record high on Dec. 1 after the company said the Covid-19 vaccine is 94.1% effective in a phase 3 test. In comparison, Pfizer and BioNTech say their coronavirus drug is proven to be 95% effective in final phase testing.
Modern is about to make 600 million doses of its coronavirus vaccine this year, Bancel said. The company is now adding staff hoping to reach 1 billion doses this year and up to 1.2 billion doses by 2022. This is essential because Covid-19 is here to stay, Bancel predicted.
“We will live with this virus, we believe, forever,” he said.
So is the MRNA stock a buy now in the wake of its coronavirus vaccination efforts?
A fundamental look at modern stock
The biotechnology company uses its promising RNA or messenger mRNA technology. Messenger RNA is a substance in the body that provides instructions for creating proteins.
The type of coronavirus that causes Covid-19, nicknamed SARS-CoV-2, is covered by so-called spike proteins. The Modern coronavirus vaccine contains mRNA that tells the body to produce a structure similar to the spike protein. The idea is that this will trigger the immune system to create antibodies to fight disease and T cells.
But Moderna is not yet profitable. To date, the company has reported losses every year since its inception in 2016. In addition, Moderna’s revenues are variable and depend on collaboration and money.
This removes the MRNA stock from the CAN SLIM threshold. Skilled investors are advised to look for shares with a recent quarterly increase of 20% -25% in revenues and earnings. The higher this increase, the better. It will be essential to see if Modern’s vaccination efforts ultimately work.
In the third quarter, Moderna reported a 55% loss per share to $ 157.9 million in revenue. This follows a loss of 37 cents and sales of 17 million dollars a year ago. For the fourth quarter, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect a loss of 34 cents per share and sales of $ 279.4 million.
The Modern stock has a composite rating of 77 out of a 99 as best as possible. The composite rating is a measure of 1-99 of the key fundamental and technical measures of a stock. Therefore, Moderna’s shares are restricted to the first quarter of all shares in these values.
What does 2019 say about MRNA Stock?
Moderna shares went public on the 23rd at the end of 2018.
In 2019, the biotech stock increased by about 38%. In 2020, however, shares increased by over 434%.
However, the composition of Moderna’s action does not extend to fundamental measures. In 2019, Moderna reported a loss of $ 1.55 per share to $ 60 million in sales. Losses have deepened every year from the four full years, and revenues have fallen for two years now.
By 2020, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect losses of $ 1.57 per share for $ 530 million in sales. Losses would decrease slightly, as sales would increase by 783%. In 2021, analysts expect Moderna to be solidly profitable, with rapidly accelerating revenues.
Modern stock: Technical analysis
Moderna shares erupted from a cup base, with a buy point at 178.60 on January 29th. But on February 1, shares collapsed under their entry, according to MarketSmith.com. It triggered a sell-off rule when a stock falls 7% -8% below its point of purchase.
Following its optimistic news about the coronavirus vaccine on November 16, the Moderna stock burst in bulk. Biotech stocks outperformed a 95.31 buyout from a consolidation The stock hit a record high that day at 100.13, but quickly faced resistance and began to fall below their breakout. .
Moderna shares subsequently destroyed that record in the last three trading days in November. Shares hit a new record again on December 1, but quickly fell on the news Merck (MRK) sold its investment in MRNA shares. Shares collapsed when the analyst fell on December 9th.
The progress of other Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers has occasionally weighed in on the Moderna stock. In September, AstraZeneca (AZN) discontinued testing of the Covid-19 phase 3 vaccine when one participant became seriously ill. However, the study was resumed in October.
Signing a commitment
Moderna and AstraZeneca are among the nine Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers that have signed a commitment to pursue science and safety in their development efforts. This came as the US and other political leaders stepped up calls for a vaccine as soon as possible to help troubled economies and alleviate social unrest.
Moderna’s shares fell 13% on September 8, to a four-month low after Moderna signed the pledge. Investors should be cautious. It will be essential to follow regulatory and commercial evidence of its technology, as well as fundamental markers and strong techniques.
Optimistically, the MRNA stock has a strong relative strength rating of 98. The RS rating is a 1-99 score of a stock’s 12-month performance. This places Moderna in the top 2% of all actions – regardless of the industry group – in terms of performance.
But Moderna shares have a low EPS rating of 19, reflecting years of continuous losses per share.
(RELATED: Keep track of investors’ daily business valuations each day by visiting IBD Digital.)
News about the MRNA stock vaccine
Moderna set a record in early 2020, when it created an experimental coronavirus vaccine within 42 days of receiving the genetic sequence of the virus from researchers in China. The National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases conducted the phase 1 study in healthy volunteers.
This news brought the MRNA stock to almost 28% in a single day in February last year.
In mid-March, the MRNA stock rose more than 15 percent after the biotechnology company said it had administered the first participant in a phase 1 study of the coronavirus vaccine. This was the tenth Modern vaccine for infectious diseases to begin a clinical study.
The Moderna stock jumped on May 18 after the biotechnology company said its coronavirus vaccine showed positive intermediate results in the phase 1 test. The researchers tested the vaccine on participants between the ages of 18 and 55.
All participants developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 two weeks after receiving a second low-dose vaccine. The average dose produced even more antibodies. But Moderna’s stock fell by more than 10% the day after biotechnology announced a public offering of shares.
On July 14, Moderna revealed additional “robust” data from the same study. In particular, the mean dose generated 2.1 to 4.1 times the neutralizing antibodies seen in patients recovered with Covid-19. Moderna intends to study the dose size in a late-stage test.
Phase 3 test demonstrates 94.1% efficiency
In mid-November, Moderna revealed an interim analysis of its phase 3 test, saying the vaccine was 94.5% effective. The analysis was based on an examination of 95 cases of Covid-19 starting two weeks after the participants received the second blow. Of these cases, only five came from the vaccine group.
A second analysis looked at 11 severe cases of Covid-19. All 11 come from the placebo group.
On November 30, Moderna said its coronavirus vaccine was 94.1% effective in the final phase 3 analysis. Of the 196 cases of Covid-19, 185 appeared in the placebo group. Only 11 came from the placebo group. There were no severe cases of Covid-19 among those who received the vaccine.
The vaccine so far seems relatively safe. Severe side effects included pain at the injection site in 2.7% of participants after the first dose. Between 2% and 9.7% of participants reported fatigue, muscle aches, joint pain, headache, general pain and pain / redness at the injection site after the second dose.
On December 15, FDA information documents said that the Modern coronavirus vaccine “met the pre-specific success criteria” in clinical trials. Two days later, an advisory committee said the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks in a 20-0 vote. A panelist abstained.
The coronavirus vaccine was cleared the next day.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novavax (NVAX) recently reported Phase 3 results for rival coronavirus vaccines. The J&J single-injection vaccine was 66% effective in preventing Covid-19. The Novavax double-stroke regimen was 89.3% effective against the virus.
And Moderna is not the only company that uses mRNA technology. BioNTech is also a pioneer of mRNA. And Translate Bio (TBIO) also takes a mRNA approach to the Covid-19 vaccine it is developing in partnership Sanofi (CUT).
So the Modern stock is bought right now?
Moderna shares are not bought right now.
The shares fell well below their entry on February 1, triggering a sell-off rule. CAN SLIM investors are advised to buy a share when they have eliminated a point of purchase and are in the 5% tracking area.
The company managed to gather two quarters of three-digit sales growth. That is expected to continue in the future. Moreover, starting with the beginning of 2021, Moderna is expected to be solidly profitable.
Moderna shares were well above the 50-day and 200-day moving lines on February 3rd.
The shares have an RS rating, but the company’s composite rating is not among the top echelon of shares.
It will be important to follow Modern’s efforts to distribute the coronavirus vaccine. This could help store both the MRNA shares and the financial data of the biotechnology company.
To find the best stocks to buy and track, check out the IBD stock lists. Make sure you also keep stock sheets to buy or sell.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
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