Morocco has made headlines as the latest Arab country to normalize relations with Israel, after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. This critical action will facilitate the resumption of diplomatic ties, encourage “economic and technological” partnerships and allow direct flights between Morocco and Israel. Morocco is also the ancestral home of one million Jews and over 50,000 Israelis travel to Morocco each year.
But the agreement comes with the recognition of Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, essentially supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only framework for negotiating any resolution with the Polisario Front. The decision of the United States in the fight for Western Sahara marks a radical change in policy towards one of the most unresolved conflicts in the region.
Despite fueling some unrest in Morocco, the decision to normalize relations with Israel is generally seen as a positive move for its international position, especially in improving relations with Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, with the gain additional strategic recognition of its claims to Western Sahara.
After searching the territory as part of its foreign policy for the past four decades, the monarchy considers this a major diplomatic victory. However, the surprising support of his claim will nevertheless serve as a test of Morocco’s ability to mandate an efficient local government, in line with its advanced regional plan. There is an irony that the plan, the cornerstone of a strongly pluralistic Morocco, will grant a certain level of autonomy to Western Sahara, although still under its sovereignty.
The deal comes following a ceasefire that broke out last month after Morocco sent forces to a United Nations area to stop protests and the trade blockade. The Polisario Front, an Algerian-backed nationalist movement that seeks independence and claims territory, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic have responded angrily to these recent developments and are likely to feel cornered and justified in resuming hostilities. If Algeria, where the Polisario Front has bases and camps, intervenes, greater unrest could occur.
The Western Sahara dispute was ignited in 1975, after the withdrawal of Spain, leaving Morocco, Mauritania and the Polisario Front in conflict with the territory. An advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice that year acknowledged the links between Morocco and Mauritania, but argued that they were not owned by Western Sahara. Instead, he favored the determination of the Sahrawis. A 1991 agreement installed a peace system that required the status quo until a referendum was held, but this never happened because both sides worked to change the area’s demographics. Morocco now controls most of the territory.
The Western Sahara Bou Craa Mine is home to one of the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, a critical ingredient in agricultural fertilizers. Its production capacity, operated by a subsidiary of a mining company owned by Morocco, is about 8% of the mining company’s total extraction capacity. Western Sahara also has profitable fishing activities, an important sector that has grown under the control of the central government. It is also believed that there are substantial offshore oil and gas reserves that could strengthen the local economy. But southwestern Algeria, where the Polisario Front camps are located, is arid and deserted.
As Morocco has struggled to validate its control over Western Sahara, the US decision is a major victory for the country. Despite some discomfort at home with the perceived rejection of the Palestinian cause, national fervor for Western Sahara covers the anxieties of an agreement with Israel and its results. The real challenge for Morocco is the integration of Western Sahara.
Is it possible for the Saharawi culture to survive in Morocco? Algeria supported the Sahrawi cause. But these recent events may provide an opportunity to settle on a plan in which Sahrawi society can survive in the context of a pluralistic Morocco. If Western Sahara becomes part of Morocco, it must not dissolve. The real test will be for Morocco to show that it can transfer governmental responsibilities and allow the local administration of Western Sahara territory that shows its identity and people as part of a Morocco that is diverse and inclusive.
Patricia Karam is the regional director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Republican Institute, which works to promote democracy.