More than 600,000 Americans will die from Covid-19 through June 1, according to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The model predicted a death toll of 614,503 Americans – slightly lower than the previous forecast released last week, which predicted 631,000 deaths.
Warmer weather and wider vaccination could help reduce transmission from now until August, according to the IHME.
“We expect vaccination to reach 145 million adults by June 1, and this expansion will prevent 114,000 deaths,” IHME said in a statement.
More than 50 million doses of the vaccine have been administered nationally, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And if 95% of Americans start wearing masks next week, 34,000 lives could be saved.
British version: The spread of the B.1.1.7 virus variant, first identified in the UK, could complicate any potential decline. At least 981 cases of B.1.1.7 have been found in 37 states, the CDC said this week.
The team stated that it took into account the expected version spread in its projections for this forecast. In the worst case, US deaths could reach 645,000 by June 1.
Other factors: Progress could also be reversed if people let their guard down, IHME said.
“Transmission was limited during the winter by wearing a mask, decreased mobility and avoiding high-risk settings such as indoor dining,” IHME said. “As the daily number of cases decreases and vaccination increases, behaviors are likely to change to an increased risk of transmission.”