Moon in the face of tough electoral struggle in South Korea’s largest cities

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President Moon Jae-in’s Democratic Party could face the biggest defeat in five years in Wednesday’s mayoral election in South Korea’s two largest cities, a disturbing sign for its progressive bloc just 11 months before presidential vote.

Polls show conservatives with leadership in the by-elections in Seoul and Busan fueled by public outrage over property prices in big cities that have risen under the Moon.

Losses in cities that make up about a quarter of South Korea’s population could put a brake on Moon’s agenda to increase public employment and boost higher tax spending. It would also serve as a warning to his Democratic Party that it must renew its policies if it wants to retain the presidency when Moon’s five-year term ends in 2022.

In Seoul, Oh Se-hoon, the former mayoral candidate for the Conservative opposition, was the election of 50.5% of respondents, while Democratic candidate Park Young-sun, former minister for startups, was at 28.2% , in a survey. by Korea Research International, IPSOS and Hankook Research, launched a week ago, before the official interruption period

In Busan, Conservative People’s Power Park Hyung-jun was well ahead of Kim Young-choon of Moon’s Progressive Party, according to a separate report survey conducted by the three institutions.

Polls are open until 8pm Starting at 3pm, turnout was 45.2% in Seoul and 40.2% in Busan, slightly lower than at the same time of day in the last election in 2018, when the polls closed two hours earlier, according to the National Electoral Commission.

Oh, also backed by the PPP, he hit the Moon government for tightening regulations on redevelopment and limiting the number of building permits over the years, saying the attempt to limit private builders’ earnings failed.

Oh resigned as mayor of Seoul in 2011 after losing a battle to cut free student lunches in the capital to cut public spending, prompting criticism that they are tight. The return to power could signal that public sentiment has worsened over Moon’s economic policies that prioritize wealth redistribution and fiscal aid. Park also expressed dissatisfaction with Moon’s real estate policy and distanced himself from the president.

“If the PPP wins, Moon is likely to become a lame duck and swinging voters could continue to jump on the bandwagon of the People’s Power Party in the next few months,” said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University in Seoul.

Moon has pledged to make housing more affordable when he was elected in 2017, but apartment prices in Seoul have doubled in the past five years, while South Korean wages have risen by less than 20%, leaving housing in the capital within reach of many people and some of them in the hands of a few speculators.

Runaway prices

Apartments in Seoul have become twice as expensive in the last 5 years

Amid housing outrage, Moon’s support rate hit a new low last week, following allegations that state-run employees used inside information to earn money for themselves from housing developments in Seoul. The scandal was the latest in a series of questionable land transactions that have taken over the presidency of the moon.

The number of sliding polls comes after Moon and his allies won a majority in the parliamentary election about a year ago, leading a wave of public support for managing the coronavirus crisis. The Moon party won a series of victories following the 2016 ouster of former President Park Geun-hye, a conservative leader later convicted of corruption.

The by-elections were necessary after the mayors of Seoul and Busan, both of Moon’s Democratic Party, faced accusations of sexual harassment, an embarrassment for Moon, who declared herself feminist president.

– With the assistance of Sam Kim and Jiyeun Lee

(Updates with participation figures in the sixth paragraph.)