MLB teams that should make a big move

The Mets made the biggest hit of the Hot Stove season on Thursday, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland. The landing of two players of that caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is notable in any context. But it was especially huge for

The Mets made the biggest hit of the Hot Stove season on Thursday, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland.

The landing of two players of that caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is notable in any context. But it was especially huge for the Mets, given their place in a competitive Eastern National League, led by the three-time Braves division champion. According to Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs, his ZiPS system had the Mets seven games behind Atlanta in the pre-trade ranking. Now, the two teams are virtually equal, with the Mets’ chances of making the postseason jumping by about 31 percentage points to 72.4%.

In fact, ZiPS shows that at the time of the Lindor deal, the Mets had the most to gain from any team, in terms of playoff probability, by adding five wins to their roster (or roughly the combined impact of Lindor and Carrasco). . But there are many other clubs that would get a comparable shot from such a move.

Working on Szymborski’s calculations, here are five of the teams that could benefit the most from a Mets-sized splash and a way each could accomplish this kind of thing. Keep in mind that these suggested moves are not necessarily at that level of five wins – they are hard to find – but they would still give a significant boost to the hopes of each team in October.

Angels
This is a moment of opportunity in Anaheim. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are superstars in their firsts, and the Western American League could be as ripe for making it as it once was. Houston and Oakland will lose more key players, while Seattle and Texas do not seem ready to return to the top of the standings yet. Perry Minasian, the general manager of the New Angels, replaced Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias at the short break and added Raisel Iglesias closer, but has not yet managed to land the kind of differentiated player that could change the balance of power in the West.

A brilliant move: Right signing of the free agent Trevor Bauer. The start of pitching was a painful place for the Angels, and while Dylan Bundy proved to be a great addition to the purchase last year, the team’s rotation is still only 19th in the WAR designed by FanGraphs. With Shohei Ohtani far from safe at this point, paying the price to win the NL Cy Young Award winner – projected at about 4 WARS – would be the best way to help Trout return to the postseason.

Blue Jays
It looks like they are in the mix for a few impact players this season, but so far they have failed none, re-signing left Robbie Ray on their only notable move. However, it seems to be more a matter of who and when than if. Blue Jays jumped from 95 losses in 2019 to 32-28 in the shortened campaign of ’20, making the postseason behind a young core of position players and last year’s big free agent acquisition, Hyun Jin Ryu. The club still finished behind the Rays and Yankees in the division, but Tampa Bay said goodbye to Blake Snell and Charlie Morton, and the Yankees have a quiet winter, there is an opening here for Toronto.

A brilliant move: Signing the free agent outfielder George Springer. While the Jays could go in a few different directions – and the snatching of DJ LeMahieu from Yanks would undoubtedly be satisfying – Springer is probably best suited. It would be a defensive upgrade in the center over Randal Grichuk and will bring a winning story, not to mention his elite bat. Springer could help the club become not only a division competitor, but also a championship competitor.

cardinal
Indeed, this could be any of the top four teams in NL Central. Leaving aside the Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Reds, they each ranked among the top five teams to win in a five-win jump, according to ZiPS. That’s because of how close these clubs are together. However, no one has advanced this off-season to try to improve their roster. (In fact, the division’s most notable moves were the declines, led by Yu Darvish of Chicago). As for the Cardinals, they have managed to slip into the playoffs in the back-to-back seasons, but their list lacks high talent. Everything St. did. Louis this winter is the decline of Kolten Wong’s club option and (so far) fails to sign the franchise faces Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright again.

A brilliant move: Exchange for third base Nolan Arenado. While St. Louis has been connected to the Rockies star in the past, this is probably a big stretch, given the six years and $ 199 million remaining from Arenado’s contract and his post-2021 waiver clause. But perhaps the books could become creative, given all the big contracts set to come out of the club’s books after this season (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller and Carlos Martínez). Assuming the 2020 offensive crisis was the product of a strange, shortened season, Arenado would be a massive upgrade to third place over the 35-year-old Carpenter, who has struggled for the past two years.

people
While Hot Stove has been mostly quiet so far, the Nats have been relatively active, tackling a thin line trading for first baseman Josh Bell and signing left-hander Kyle Schwarber. Washington has addressed two major areas of need and now has much more behind Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but honestly, the work should not be done. The Lindor trade made this clear, with ZiPS now seeing the Nats as a clear third behind the Braves and Mets.

A brilliant move: Free agent capture signatory JT Realmuto. The questionable depth of Nats means that general manager Mike Rizzo could also make a significant addition to second or third base, or even in the starting rotation, where there are a lot of question marks behind the big three of to Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. . But the Nats captains, led by Yan Gomes, are close to the bottom of the FanGraphs projections, while Realmuto has a strong case as the best overall backstop in the game. If Washington is willing to make the necessary financial commitment, this would go a long way in helping it challenge Atlanta and New York.

the Twins
Trade with Lindor helped Minnesota, whose postseason probability of ZiPS increased by nearly 75%, with Cleveland retreating to a clear third in AL Central. On the other hand, the twins have pursued the division’s other main competitor, the White Sox, trading for Lance Lynn and are now reaching an agreement with free agent Liam Hendriks, according to sources. The twins have been relatively calm, and if they keep up with Chicago and capture their third-division right crown, some reinforcements are in order – even beyond the seemingly inevitable return of Nelson Cruz.

A brilliant move: Change for Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray. Both starting players have come into business discussions, with tomatoes amusing other pay cuts and both are projected among the top 20 pitchers in MLB (with Castillo a little over Gray). The rotation of the twins is strong at the top (Kenta Maeda, José Berríos), but somewhat troubled below it, especially considering that Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill are free agents. While Minnesota could be content with gaining depth, Castillo or Gray will replace options for fifth starter Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe would be the best way to counter the White Sox. Such a move would cost the potential wealth of the twins, but none of those right would break the bank.