JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) – Before each rainy season, Lu Lu Aung and other farmers living in a camp for displaced people in Kachin State in northern Myanmar would return to the village where they fled and planted crops to grow. It helps keep them fed for the next year.
But this year, following the military coup in February, with the rains not far away, farmers rarely leave their makeshift homes and do not dare to leave the camp. They say it is simply too dangerous to run into Myanmar soldiers or their aligned militias.
“We can’t go anywhere and we can’t do anything about the coup,” Lu Lu Aung said. “Every night, we hear the sounds of planes flying so close over our camp.”
The army’s lethal crackdown on protesters in major central cities, such as Yangon and Mandalay, has received much attention since the coup that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government. But far in Myanmar’s border areas, Lu Lu Aung and millions of others from Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups face growing uncertainty and declining security as long-running conflicts between the military and minority guerrilla armies are on fire.
It is a situation that has come to the fore in the last week, as the army launched deadly airstrikes against ethnic Karen guerrillas in their homeland on the eastern border, displacing thousands and sending civilians fleeing to neighboring Thailand.
Several rebel armies have threatened to join forces if the killing of civilians does not stop, while a group of ousted members of the government has launched the idea of creating a new army to include rebel groups. Meanwhile, the UN special envoy for Myanmar has warned that the country is facing the possibility of a civil war.
Ethnic minorities make up about 40 percent of Myanmar’s 52 million people, but the central government and military leadership have long been dominated by the country’s ethnic Burmese majority. Since independence from Britain in 1948, more than a dozen ethnic groups have sought greater autonomy, with some maintaining their own independent armies.
This put them at odds with Myanmar’s ultra-nationalist generals, who have long seen any surrender of the territory – especially those in border areas that are often rich in natural resources – amount to betrayal and fought relentlessly against rebel armies. with only occasional periods of ceasefire.
The violence has led to allegations of abuse against all parties, such as arbitrary taxes on civilians and forced recruitment, and, according to the United Nations, has displaced about 239,000 people in 2011 alone. This does not include the more than 800,000 Rohingya minorities who fled. in Bangladesh to get rid of a military campaign that the UN has called ethnic cleansing.
Anti-coup protests have taken place in every border state since February, and security forces have responded as elsewhere with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. But residents and observers say the post-coup situation in geographically isolated border areas has been exacerbated by heightened battles between the military and ethnic armed organizations fighting for power and territory.
Lu Lu Aung, who comes from the Kachin ethnic group, said he took part in the protests, but stopped because it was too dangerous now. She said Myanmar security forces and aligned militias had recently occupied their old village where they planted crops and no one had left the camp because they feared they would be forced to work for the army.
“Our students can no longer go to school and it is so difficult for adults to find a job and earn money,” she said.
Humanitarian aid for civilians in the border areas – already strained by the pandemic, as well as the inherent difficulties faced by external groups operating in many areas – has also been difficult since the coup.
Communications have stalled, banks have shut down and security has become increasingly uncertain, said the director of a Myanmar organization that supports displaced people who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“There is no more humanitarian aid and support,” she said.
In the eastern state of Karen, where airstrikes have displaced thousands, there is concern that the arrival of the rainy season could exacerbate a humanitarian situation already hampered by reports that Thailand has sent back many of its fleeing civilians. Thailand said those who returned to Myanmar did so voluntarily.
However, there are parts of the country’s border countries that have been hard hit by the coup.
In Wa State, a region bordering China and Thailand, which has its own government, military and ceasefire agreements with Myanmar’s military, videos shared online show life as usual, including the launch of a vaccination campaign against coronavirus.
Near Bangladesh, in the coastal state of Rakhine, where the Rohingya were expelled and where violent fighting with the Arakan army group has been going on for years, the junta removed the group from its list of terrorist groups last month, raising hopes that hostilities will decrease. The Arakan army, unlike other armed groups, did not criticize the coup.
However, the group has since issued a statement declaring its right to defend its territory and civilians against military attacks, prompting some to fear a further escalation of fighting.
Other armed groups have issued similar statements. Some, such as the Karen National Union, offered protection to civilians marching in protest against the coup.
Such actions have contributed to calls for a “federal army” bringing together armed ethnic groups from across the country. But analysts say such a vision would be difficult to achieve because of logistical challenges and political disagreements between groups.
“These groups are not able to provide the necessary support against the Myanmar army in urban centers with large populations or indeed too far from their own regions,” said Ronan Lee, a scholar visited at Queen Mary University in London. state.
Despite uncertainty about what is to come, some minority activists say they have been encouraged by the coup by focusing more on the role ethnic groups can play in Myanmar’s future. They also say there seems to be a better understanding – at least among anti-coup protesters – of the struggle that minorities have faced for so long.
“If there is a silver lining in all this, it is,” said an activist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of fears for their safety.