Merkel’s successor will resume relations with Washington

FRANKFURT – “The moments when we could fully rely on others – are over.”

These were the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel after a difficult G-7 and NATO meeting with President Donald Trump in 2017. This sentence marked a deviation from her usual feeling towards the transatlantic relationship and was widely seen as a moment. important.

Despite a wave of statements from the Trump administration, Markel has preferred to remain calm for the next few years, probably expecting a new president in 2020.

She and German unity got what they wanted: in Joe Biden there is a new American leader with a clear multilateral and pro-European agenda.

But while relationships are much more friendly on the surface now, there are still some central issues.

“Major issues such as Nord Stream 2 and NATO’s 2% of GDP spending target will remain controversial issues,” said Andreas Dombret, a board member of Atlantik Brücke, a non-profit organization that promotes German-American relations. a telephone interview with CNBC. Nord Stream 2 is the Russian-led gas pipeline that is expected to provide Europe with a sustainable energy supply.

“There is no direct initiative with the new US administration, especially when it comes to a free trade agreement, which is probably out of reach,” Dombret added.

Predicting the future of German-American relations is not an easy task, as many factors come into play. For example, the US appears to be calling for a clear commitment to prioritize relations with the White House over those with China and Russia.

“We must push back against the economic abuses and constraints of the Chinese government that underlie the foundations of the international economic system,” President Joe Biden said in his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February.

“The Kremlin is attacking our democracies and arming corruption to try to undermine our system of government,” he added in another part of the speech.

Germany has usually put its own economic interests above all else when it comes to its relationship with Beijing. But that will change.

“There is a lot of pressure to change attitudes towards China, which is developing from within Germany, parties like the Greens, parties of the CDU (Merkel) want a tougher line,” said Noah Barkin, editor at Rhodium Group China Practice with headquarters in Berlin.

When it comes to Russia, things are more difficult, especially due to the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has widespread support in Germany. Russia’s problem is also linked to the issue of NATO spending. Critics say Germany cannot ask for NATO support, but then does not pay its fair share to the budget, while financing Russia through the gas pipeline and waiting for the full US shield when things go wrong.

The Greens, being a potential kingdom in Berlin, with federal elections to be held in September, have a different vision, which is also recognized in the United States. The Green Party, founded in 1980, with a clear focus on the peace movement and saving the environment, supported leaving NATO and disabling military action. The official line of the party has changed since then, but the party leadership still fails to get its members to fully support it.

Germany and other nations have been criticized for not contributing enough to their defense budgets, with NATO’s target set at 2% of GDP.

“I think the 2% orientation on NATO spending is an absurd debate,” said Annalena Baerbock, one of the Green Party’s candidates for chancellor and a rising star on the political scene, in an interview with Die Zeit.

The direction of transatlantic policy will depend on the composition of the coalition government, as Merkel resigns and Germany will vote for the new leader at the end of this year. If her CDU party comes to power with the Liberal Party, FDP, things will be easy because they both have a strong commitment to the United States.

However, if the CDU teams up with the Greens, things get complicated, not least because of NATO spending. In the case of the so-called Jamaican coalition of the CDU, the FDP and the Greens, the latter will have two major counterweights in Parliament to dilute any legislation they promote.