The wave of optimism following the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccines is receding – and this could create problems for President Biden.
US deaths from the virus reached 80,000 in January, making it the nation’s deadliest month. And the new strains are worrying scientists, including a mutation emanating from the UK that is more contagious and probably more deadly than those seen before.
On Wednesday, the new head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rochelle WalenskyRochelle Walensky Overnight care: Councilor Biden makes more pessimistic predictions about vaccine launch | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K by Feb. 20 Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, the observer says the CDC US projects could see up to 514,000 coronavirus deaths by February 20. Problems interrupt the first COVID-19 Zoom briefing under Biden MORE, said the total number of US deaths caused by the virus will reach about 500,000 on February 20 based on the current trajectory. Up to 425,000 people have died so far.
There have also been problems with the launch of vaccinations, with state officials complaining that they are not clear about how many photos will be available at any one time.
While the new administration has only been in power for a week and cannot be reasonably blamed for many of the current problems, the problems reverberate in the economy – posing a considerable political risk to Biden.
The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500, at a broader level, each fell by more than 2% on Wednesday, the latter having the worst day in October, as the Federal Reserve left interest rates close to zero.
Retail sales have been below expectations for the past two months. The latest monthly employment report showed that the nation recorded a net job loss for the first time in eight months in December.
Any further damage could affect Biden’s political capital at a sudden rate.
Fairly or otherwise, he will be held responsible for a prolonged economic downturn, as assessments of President Obama’s poll fell at the beginning of his first term, as a financial crisis that began under the previous administration caused jobs to bleed.
“I think its approval rating and popularity will depend, first and foremost, on the implementation of the vaccine. If this does not go well, he will be blamed for it or not, “said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“If the pandemic is off the rails, the economy is the same and he will be blamed for it,” Zandi added.
For the time being, there is a growing consensus that a rapid economic recovery seems less and less likely.
“The pace of economic and employment recovery has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrating in the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic,” the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said on Wednesday.
Biden is making a major effort to mitigate the economic effects of COVID-19 with its proposed $ 1.9 trillion rescue package. The proposal, which calls for direct payments of up to $ 1,400 for millions of Americans and the minimum wage to be raised to $ 15 an hour, faces uncertain prospects in Congress.
Biden also said the pandemic situation was even worse than he had feared, preparing the nation for many more months of a grueling battle.
Speaking at the White House on Tuesday, the president likened the fight against COVID-19 to “a war effort” and noted that “it’s not a secret I discovered recently … the vaccination program is in a worse shape. than I anticipated or expected. “
Biden appointed a coronavirus response coordinator and regularly resumed White House briefings from medical experts, including Anthony Fauci
Anthony FauciOvernight Health: Councilor Biden makes more pessimistic prediction of vaccine launch | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K by Feb. 20 Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, the watchdog says confident vaccine companies in Fauci are prepared for “mutant” coronavirus strains. Fauci defends Birx: “He had to live in the White House” MORE, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases. The president promised on Tuesday that states would have “a reliable three-week forecast of what supplies they would receive” for vaccinations.
There were small mistakes.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki
Jen PsakiOvernight Health: Councilor Biden makes more pessimistic predictions about vaccine launch | CDC says coronavirus could kill up to 514K by Feb. 20 Vaccine research funds have been misused for decades, the watchdog says McCaul is urging senators to block the Commerce Secretary’s vote on Huawei’s concerns, the White House continues to work hard for COVID-19 aid talks MORE told reporters on Tuesday that Biden had not set a concrete target when he suggested that 1.5 million people a day – rather than 1 million – could soon receive vaccinations.
“The president didn’t really say ‘The new goal is …'” The president said, “I hope we can do even more than that,” Psaki said.
Biden claims that 300 million Americans could be vaccinated by early fall. In a way, this is a note of optimism. But it also emphasizes how much time must pass before the resumption of something close to normal life – or normal economic activity.
Earlier this week, the governor of California. Gavin Newsom
Gavin NewsomFBI says California extremist could have targeted Newsom The Hill’s Morning Report – Biden pleads for legislative patience, urgent action in the context of the Portland mayor’s crisis, throwing men after confrontation at restaurant (D) surprised many observers by announcing a reduction in restrictions, despite the fact that coronavirus cases in his state had only recently risen.
“The biggest threat is that Californians will take this as a signal to let go, even if the virus continues to rage,” a Los Angeles Times editorial warned. “The state cannot afford to continue the cycle of one step forward and two steps back, which has kept us firmly in the grip of the pandemic.”
Public health experts, such as Kavita Patel, a doctor and non-resident colleague at the Brookings Institution, fear that there are real dangers ahead.
“I know the restrictions are tough. People are tired, “she said. “But the new strains, combined with a tired population, are very worrying – a recipe for disaster.”
The public mood over the virus remains dark, despite the existence of vaccines.
In a poll published Wednesday by Economist-YouGov, only 17% of Americans believed that “the worst part of the pandemic is behind us.” Almost twice as many, 31%, believed that “the pandemic will get worse.” Thirty-two percent said we are “currently in the worst part” of fighting the virus.
It is still possible that the most unfavorable scenarios, in terms of public health and economic impact, will be avoided.
The vaccination process could be improved, new viral mutations could have minimal effects and, from an economic point of view, the recharged demand could lead to a new increase as the health threat recedes.
Right now, however, all this seems far from certain.
“The economy is struggling and the path of the pandemic has become more uncertain,” Zandi said.
Memo is a column reported by Niall Stanage.