Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and Cilia Flores, the first lady of Venezuela, arrive at the National Assembly in Caracas on January 12, 2021.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Long ridiculed as a low chair heater, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appears to be a ruthless force – deflecting US pressure, clearing rivals, empowering his son, wife and trusted aides and letting dollars flow to prevent his economy from collapsing.
The result is that the man considered to be the weak face of Chavism – the movement named after his magnetic predecessor, Hugo Chavez – is now the robust head of what is increasingly called maturity.
“Maduro was underestimated, including in Chavismo, and he managed to surprise and overcome his enemies from within and without,” said Caracas political analyst Dimitris Pantoulas. “He has placed trusted people in the most influential positions, replacing those who could challenge his power.”
With the exception of foreign intervention, an increasingly distant possibility, Maduro is likely to remain in charge of Venezuela for the foreseeable future. As he goes to bed, the nature of his maturity becomes clearer and clearer. A United Nations the September report last year referred to extrajudicial killings and arbitrary detention, accusing the regime of “crimes against humanity” – an accusation the government has rejected.
After the rigged elections in December, Maduro snatched the nation’s congress – and the last democratic body – from US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido, naming his new leader Jorge Rodriguez. His son, Nicolas Jr. and his wife Cilia Flores won both seats as MPs.
As Venezuela’s economy shrank for a seventh consecutive year in 2020, the socialist leader promoted an informal dollarization and weakened control over the private sector. He has allowed more than $ 2 billion, some in the form of births luxury savings in dollars and others in remittances from the 5 million who fled the country, helping him maneuver around a US embargo on his oil and a blockade of his nation’s assets abroad.
Low approval ratings
He did all this with approval ratings below 15%. His opponents are rapidly losing steam, with street demonstrations disappearing despite the collapse of basic goods and services in a country that was once one of the richest in the world. Oil exports, at all-time lows, are rising again.
Allies, such as Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, Jorge’s sister, are growing as provocations, including Diosdado Cabello, are removed.
A retired army lieutenant and former vice president who joined Chavez in a failed coup in 1992, Cabello led the all-powerful constituent assembly until Maduro ordered its dissolution last year. Cabello now remains largely symbolic of the second-in-command of the Socialist Party and its congressional organizer. Cabello did not respond to a request for comment.
Meanwhile, Nicolas Jr. has been given control of the party’s junior group, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the issue. Vice President Rodriguez has also been appointed finance minister, a rare double role.
Sidelined
Others close to Chavez, such as former Education Minister Elias Jaua, have seen their careers thwarted. Jaua was shut down after proposing more democratic methods of decision-making and election of party officials, according to three people with knowledge of the issue. He is now a university professor. He did not respond to a request for comment.
Maduro is also said to have forcibly removed Major General Miguel Rodriguez Torres, a former justice minister and Chavez intelligence chief. He imprisoned him in 2018, accused by a military tribunal of treason and incitement to rebellion after criticizing the government and creating a rival party with Chavista roots, according to members of his party. He remains in prison in Fuerte Tiuna, the country’s headquarters.
Ruling party lawmaker Francisco Torrealba, who met Maduro while they both worked on public transportation in the early 1990s, admits many were skeptical of Maduro after Chavez’s death eight years ago. “Today,” he said, “no one doubts the political skills and wisdom that the president has managed to develop.”
Maduro has kept close key military allies, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, the oldest official in his role.
“The military structure will always lean towards whoever controls most of the centers of power,” said Javier Biardeau, a sociologist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela.
Under Maduro, military leaders won considerable government contracts and mining concessions, as well as control of ports and the state oil company. Most recently, they have taken over gas stations nationwide, while US sanctions are squeezing the country, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, with almost no gasoline, leading to endless lines where officers review the credentials of pump drivers.
Foreign supporters
Maduro’s foreign supporters, including China, Iran and Russia, continue to play a key role: helping sells millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude oil treated in disguise, transporting much-needed fuel and goods in exchange for gold and even agreeing to send millions of Sputnik-V photos for immunizing the nation.
While Guaido retains some global support, the opposition remains divided and devoid of ideas, weakening its position as the confrontation with Maduro continues and as more opposition politicians are forced into exile, imprisonment or removal. legal.
Although previous attempts to negotiate a political end to the crisis have failed, a segment of the opposition hopes to resume talks ahead of this year’s municipal and state elections.
US political change could also help Maduro. Donald Trump chose Venezuela, and his alliance with Cuba and Nicaragua, for pressure. President Joe Biden is expected to seek accommodation with Cuba. And while his top aides have made it clear that he considers Maduro a dictator, they have expressed interest in changing some of the sanctions.