There is a long list of interesting items in the Sunday 2021 Super Bowl between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of course, there is the confrontation between defender 43-year-old Tom Brady, who plays in the 10th Super Bowl and is trying to win the seventh ring, and Patrick Mahomes, 25, who is looking to become the younger defender to win more Super Bowl Titles.
There are crusty coaches. Bruce Arians, a football player from Paterson, NJ, who is the head coach in the Super Bowl for the first time at 68 years old. He fights Andy Reid, 62, who could never win the big one with some very good Eagles and Chiefs Teams and now has the chance to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the second year in a row.
There’s a lot of stellar power, like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. And there are veterans who have traveled various NFL roads, both bright and dim, from Jason Pierre-Paul to Ndamukong Suh to Antonio Brown to Rob Gronkowski to Le’Veon Bell and more.
But for me, while I was trying to handicap this game, the most interesting thing about this Super Bowl was the spread of the point. The New York Post’s Bettor’s Guide has been using the line provided by BetMGM since Thursday night. This selection originally appeared in the Friday editions of The Post. At the time, BetMGM listed the bosses as 3.5-point favorites with an Over / Under of 56.5. The vigor or juice was -105 for bosses -3.5 and -115 for buccaneers +3.5. This suggested that the next line move would be at 3, eliminating the half-point “hook”. The BetMGM line remained steady at these numbers for more than a week after the book opened at this number, lowered it to Chiefs -3 after a few early clear bets, then restored the hook earlier last week.
Why is it interesting?
Looking at the aggregate of sportsbook lines from nypost.com, VSiN.com and VegasInsider.com, only Stations and Mirage in Las Vegas have been with BetMGM at Chiefs -3.5 since Thursday night. All other books (including William Hill, Wynn, Golden Nugget, DraftKings, and Westgate SuperBook) listed the -3 heads with vigor at -115 or -120. All those books swayed to the point of raising the line to 3.5, but they seemed hesitant to hand the “hook” back to Bucs’ supporters.
(Besides, bettors who go to the sportsbook window or bet on mobile apps can go down to any point they want to bet on. For example, at BetMGM, boss supporters can put 3 points, but they should pay -115 vig ( as opposed to getting even money at -3.5) Bucs bets can get -105 to +3, -120 to +3.5 and -125 to +4.You can bet any of the teams anywhere between +17.5 and -17.5 if you are willing to accept the juice).
Here, however, the selection must be made together with the spread at that time and the idea came to me from this analysis of the market that the additional half is extremely valuable. My thoughts were confirmed on Friday, when all the sports cards that were at 3.5 reduced their lines to three. Even more interesting was the news that Houston furniture store mogul Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale bet $ 3.46 million on Bucs +3.5. He bought half an extra point at -127 vig, which means he will earn $ 2.72 million.
The Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers, November 27-24, in Tampa. Kansas City were a 3.5-point favorite on the shot, according to covers.com, and rushed to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter on touchdown passes of 75 and 44 yards from Muhammad to Hill. Hill would catch a 20-meter touchdown pass to bring KC 27-10 in the middle of the third quarter, part of the 13 unstoppable receptions for 269 meters. But in the end, the Buccaneers covered the gap – at the edge of the hook – Brady found Evans for 31- and 7-yard touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Does the regular season meeting between these teams mean anything now or predict how Sunday will go?
In this postseason, the Buccaneers avenged two double-digit losses against the Saints, with a 30-20 victory in the divisional round. Then they went 38-10 from home to the Packers in Week 6, winning in Green Bay, 31-26, in the NFC Championship.
The Chiefs had a rematch this postseason, defeating Bills, 38-24, in the AFC Championship after winning 26-17 at Orchard Park in Week 6. So it’s a mixed bag, but if you choose to view Double Buccaneers – Win the coming against the Saints as an outlier, you can conclude that the regular season results and post-season rematch were quite similar for both Super Bowl competitors.
Handicapper Adam Chernoff wrote an interesting deep dive into the lessons of the first Chiefs-Buccaneers game on VSiN.com. He noted that this season, the Buccaneers beat 39% of the time, the fifth highest rate in the NFL. But against the bosses, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles chose to send extra steps only 17% of the time. Muhammad threw another 462 yards against this overly cautious and uncharacteristic Bucs defense.
Entering this game, Arians talks about his “No Risk It, No Biscuit” philosophy. He is supposed to want to bring the normal aggressive and flash defense of the buccaneers to the party and see what happens in this way. Vita Vea, Tampa Bay’s massive 347-pound defensive team, missed the first meeting. He has now returned, and his presence will release passengers and flashes to follow Muhammad. Factor in the absence of injury to left-back Eric Fisher and general wear and tear on the Kansas City offensive line, and you can see how this could turn into a difficult day for Muhammad, even if there will be the opportunity for some big pieces.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Muhammad finds a way to win. But, coming in, I expect another close game between these teams and I think that the extra half point I was lucky enough to get due to the good schedule could really end up counting.
Super Bowl 2021
Buccaneers +3.5 and under 56.5.
Super Bowl 2021 prediction
Chiefs, 26-23.
Championship Sunday: 0-2 vs. spread, 1-1 Over / Under