Between five or six Republican senators would vote in favor of a conviction of former US President Donald Trump during the political process to which he will be subjected in the House of Lords of the US Congress, less than half the votes the Democratic Party needs. political rivals to ensure possible disapproval.
According to Republican Party sources on The Hill, Trump’s decision to deny amnesty to his sympathizers arrested for storming the Capitol on January 6 prevented the defeat of the Republican senators. The Democrats needed 17 of their votes to secure a two-thirds majority in the Senate and condemn Trump for instigating the uprising as a result of his fiery public speech hours before the attack, as he was charged in the statement. the charge of the ‘accusation’.
“I think if he forgave the people who were part of the attack, the number of senators (Republicans) who would vote for him would have been higher because it would have been a way of saying ‘These are my boys,’ said one. Anonymous Republican Senator Other senators, for their part, have expressed deep concern at the threats from ardent supporters of the former president, including the harassment to which prominent Senator Lindsey Graham was subjected at an airport two weeks ago.
A third line of action looks to the future: a possible conviction of Trump could significantly undermine the prospects for the reconstruction of the Republican Party, as the president’s supporters, essential to the 2022 parliamentary elections, would certainly distance themselves. of the party’s official doctrine.
However, the same sources point out that the situation is delicate as a complete rejection of the Democratic initiative could understand that the Republicans would close ranks again around a figure that cost them the White House and the entire Congress in just four years. . Talks about his future have come to light “and at some point we’ll have to discuss the fact that the Republican Party is much bigger than a single person,” these sources stress.
For now, Senate Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell has proposed delaying the trial until mid-February, confident that the matter has cooled down by then. Since the ‘impeachment’ is a number used to remove someone from a position they hold, this period could raise doubts as to the constitutional validity of this process. I suspect many of our members will resort to to this matter, “they add.
It must also be determined whether Chief Justice John Roberts will chair the trial. While it’s the job that would suit him under normal circumstances, there has never been impeachment proceedings against a former president, so it’s possible Roberts could recant himself given the murkiness of the matter.
The next two options are the vice president, Kamala Harris, and the pro tempore president, Pat Leahy. Democrats as well as both supporters of the Trump conviction, which would disrupt the whole process as a partisan exercise. And then it starts to lose its legitimacy, the sources say.
Finally, it remains to be seen how the Republican Party will behave with a second option: the possibility of removing Trump from public office. The precedents are even more confusing in this regard. While only a simple majority vote is required – that is, it would only be necessary for a Republican senator to vote in favor, or in extreme cases Vice President Harris, as President of the Senate – such a vote would only apply. are on previously convicted elected officials. civil servants.