Kuo: Apple Car still in the early stages, is unlikely to launch until the earliest by 2025-2027

At begining of the week, Reuters reported that Apple is aiming for the year 2024 for the production of its electric vehicle, with long rumors, with “next-level” battery technology, but Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo considers that a launch is unlikely until 2025-2027 at the earliest .

In a research note obtained today by MacRumors, Kuo said that the Apple Car specifications have not yet been finalized, adding that he would not be surprised if the vehicle’s launch period is pushed even further until 2028 or later:

In a previous report we predicted that Apple will launch the Apple Car in 2023-2025 […] However, our latest survey indicates that Apple Car’s current development program is unclear, and if development begins this year and all goes well, it will be launched as early as 2025–2027. Due to changes in Apple’s electric / motor vehicle market and high quality standards, we wouldn’t be surprised if Apple Car’s launch schedule is postponed until 2028 or later.

Kuo said the market is “overly uphill” in terms of Apple Car’s launch schedule and advised investors to avoid buying shares of Apple Car at this time.

Although he does not believe that Apple Car has any chance of success, Kuo said that there is uncertainty about how competitive Apple would be in the electric vehicle market due to the company lagging behind in deep learning / artificial intelligence:

The market has high expectations for Apple Car. However, we remind investors that while Apple has a variety of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in us.
Business. For example, Apple has failed to enter the smart speaker market. Demand for the HomePod and HomePod mini was lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models was temporarily suspended. Competition in the EV / car market is fiercer than for smart speakers, so we think it’s dangerous to conclude that Apple Car will succeed.

If Apple Car wants to be successful in the future, the key success factor is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about the Apple Car is that when the Apple Car is launched, current car brands will accumulate at least five years of big data and be conducive to deep learning / AI. How does Apple overcome this delay, this delay?

Reuters claimed that Apple’s self-driving vehicle will have a unique “single-cell” battery design that “frees up space inside the battery by removing bags and modules that contain battery materials,” which could lead to greater battery life.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently reacted to Apple Car rumors on Twitter, claiming that a “single-cell” battery is “electrochemically impossible.” Musk also claimed that “in the darkest days” of Model 3 production, he contacted Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla for a fraction of its current value, but it appears that Cook refused the meeting.

All in all, it seems that the Apple Car remains a distant reality.