Mass production will begin on the third generation AirPods in the third quarter of 2021, according to an investor note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, which was seen by MacRumors.
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If mass production does not start until the third quarter of 2021, it would mean that “AirPods 3” will not be delivered until later in the year. Kuo previously said in November that “AirPods” 3 will be launched in the first half of 2021, and other rumors have suggested that the new “AirPods” could come immediately this month.
There have been several leaks describing redesigned third-generation “AirPods,” which normally suggests a launch is near, and Kang, a well-respected leaker who often shares accurate information about Apple’s plans, recently said that AirPods 3 is “ready for delivery. ”
Kuo expects AirPods deliveries from the first quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2021 to fall by about 25% annually from 55 million units. If demand for PAirPods 3 is better than expected, fourth-quarter AirApods shipments will remain flat year-on-year at 23 million units. Overall, PAirPods shipments in 2021 are expected to fall to 78 million units, down from 90 million in 2020.
Kuo says AirPods Max has provided “limited support” for “AirPods” shipments, with an annual delivery of about one million units.
It is not clear at this time whether AirPods 2 will no longer be produced when AirPods 3 enters mass production. Kuo says Apple has a dilemma – if AirPods 2 stays around and is sold at a lower price, it could affect AirPods 3 demand, but if there is no AirPods model at low prices, it could have a negative effect on Apple sales .
If irAirPods 2 reaches the end of its life after mass production of irAirPods 3, we estimate AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, AirPods 2 and irAirPods Max will account for approximately 40%, 28%, 31% and 1% of total deliveries, respectively. in 2021. If AirPods 2 will continue production after mass production of AirPods 3, we estimate AirPods 3, AirPods Pro, irAirPods 2 and AirPods Max will account for approximately 32%, 28%, 39% and 1% of total deliveries in 2021 respectively. .
Kuo attributes the decline in irAirPods deliveries to increased competition and loss of market share. There are a number of true wireless headset options at lower prices that Apple has to deal with.
The competitive advantage of Apple products is that they provide the integration of the “hardware, software and services” ecosystem, not just hardware. The iPhone, for example, has seen its market share decline due to the rapid growth of the smartphone market, but has managed to maintain the growth of deliveries due to the strong ecosystem of the App Store and developers. We believe that Siri is the core of softwareAirPods’s software and services ecosystem, but since Siri’s competitive advantage is not significant, the gap between ‘AirPods’ and its competitors is narrowing due to a lack of protection from the ecosystem, as competitors gradually improve the user experience and at the same time launch strategies with lower prices. We believe that the HomePod and HomePod mini-deliveries were significantly lower than expected for the same reason.
IrAirPods have fast pairing and switching capabilities that give them an edge over competitors, but Kuo says these advantages are “gradually offset” by improved user experiences and lower prices from competitors.
In terms of high quality, while the low latency of irAirPods Pro is about 50% improvement over AirPods 1 and 20% improvement over AirPods 2 and offers active noise cancellation, sales results show that consumers are not very willing to spend more than US $ 100 to buy irAirPods Pro outlets.
Kuo says that if Apple wants to improve AirPods deliveries in the future, it needs hardware innovation, such as health management functionality, to differentiate headphones from similar products offered by competitors.