In the next few hours, Boris Johnson will face an election that will define his position as prime minister: to accept a trade agreement with the European Union or to lead it alone.
It could hardly have come at a more difficult time. As it struggles with its dilemma over Britain’s relationship with its closest and largest trading partner, its government is fighting a new highly contagious variant of coronavirus, which has led EU countries to impose travel bans and plunged much of England into the emergency blockade.
There are only a few days left until the UK leaves the single market and the EU customs union at 11pm London time on 31 December – and the British government excluding any extension of this term – it is still unclear which way Johnson will go after the block refused to offer more concessions over the weekend.
People close to the negotiations on both sides said there was a strong possibility of reaching an agreement on Monday – but acknowledged that there was still a significant chance that talks would collapse.
Although both sides consider Christmas to be a natural term, EU and British officials do not even rule out being asked to return later in December for a final push, if necessary. EU officials said the issue was not really time, but whether Johnson wanted to go for it or not.
“The obligation for the next few days is to conclude this negotiation – this can be done,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told RTE Radio. “Countries like France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland are very unlikely to support an additional offer, because we have, we have our own interests, just like the UK.”
Johnson wants to extract concessions from the EU to get a good deal to satisfy lawmakers in his own party on which he will rely to approve an agreement. Several have pushed for him to move away from the negotiations, and many of the same parliamentarians are also unhappy with the way he has handled the latest developments in the coronavirus crisis.
As Brexit uncertainty continued, Johnson was scheduled to hold a meeting of the British government’s emergency committee on Monday to discuss rising infections and the impact on international travel. Meanwhile, the pound collapsed by 2.5% against the dollar on the worst day since the virus hit the markets in March.
David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator and his team of about 25 people, is in Brussels, awaiting final orders with their counterparts at the EU Commission.
“The crucial moment”
“At this crucial time for the EU-UK negotiations, we continue to work hard with David Frost and his team,” EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said on Twitter on Sunday. “The EU remains committed to a fair, reciprocal and balanced agreement. We respect the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and we expect the same. “
The whole agreement – one that would include a security relationship and cooperation agreements in a number of other areas – is now entirely up to an agreement on the rights that EU vessels will have to fish in British waters.
The Johnson government considers taking control of Britain’s waters a matter of sovereignty, while European countries with large fishing industries resist any move by the EU to make concessions to secure an agreement.
Following talks with Member States on Friday, the Commission made an offer that would allow the bloc to lose around 25% of the current € 650 million ($ 735 million) of fish it catches annually in British waters. The UK rejected it and pushed for the EU to give up 60%, according to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Therefore, the difference between the two sides from an economic point of view is reduced to about 230 million euro of fish, a small amount in the context of their wider trade relationship. British trade with France alone amounts to about 53 billion euros a year.
Final offer?
The EU offer was widely seen as final, said people close to the negotiations. The bloc also offered to reduce the period of gradual introduction of the new agreements to six years, after initially wanting 10. The UK rejected the offer of six and proposed only three years.
A person familiar with the British side of the negotiations said that the basic questions remain unanswered about what the EU’s proposals mean for UK fishing communities.
Johnson on Monday faced calls from Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to extend the UK’s post-transition period beyond the end of the year to allow more time for negotiations. This is something Johnson has previously ruled out and which the EU has said could be legally impossible.
The European Parliament, which has a veto on the entire agreement, has warned that it will not be able to ratify any agreement in time for the end of the transition period on 31 December.
The EU may rarely have to step in to provisionally implement any agreement before putting it to a vote in the new year – or the UK could face a spell outside the bloc without a trade agreement.
“We need more time,” Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade, said on Monday. “We are ready to be flexible, but the final word will be next year.”
Failure to comply with a trade agreement would allow the United Kingdom to do business with its largest and closest trading partner, under the conditions set by the World Trade Organization. This would mean that millions of businesses and consumers would have to deal with costs and disrupt tariffs and quotas.
– With the assistance of Dara Doyle, Peter Flanagan, Alberto Nardelli and Maria Tadeo
(He added that the government ruled out the extension in the third paragraph)