Dozens of countries have banned travel from the UK in an effort to contain a new Covid-19 variant reported for the first time in England.
The new mutation is called VUI-202012/01 – the first “variant under investigation” in the UK in December 2020. While scientists are looking for more information about the variant, its impact is already being felt, with dozens of countries imposing restrictions on travel from UK.
Here’s what we know so far about the Covid-19 variant:
What is a variant and why are officials concerned about it? A variant occurs when the genetic structure of a virus changes. All viruses move over time and new variants are common, including for the new coronavirus.
Like other variants, it has a genetic footprint that makes it easy to trace and happens to be one that is now widespread in the south-east of England. That alone does not necessarily mean that a variant is more contagious or dangerous.
But scientists advising the British government have estimated that this variant could be up to 70% more effective in spreading than others. Peter Horby, chair of the Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (NERVTAG), said on Monday that experts “now have high confidence that this variant has a transmission advantage” over other variants.
The World Health Organization said Tuesday that changes to the variant include 14 key mutations and that some of them “may affect the transmissibility of the virus to humans,” although it added that further laboratory investigations are needed.
Where did the variant come from and how did it take it? The new variant is believed to have come from the south-east of England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) says the follow-up, using genetic evidence, suggests that the variant first appeared in England in September. It then circulated at very low levels until mid-November.
Chris Whitty, England’s medical director, said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which had almost doubled in the last week alone.
Several experts also suggested that this new variant could have been amplified due to an over-spreading event, which means that the current peak in cases could also have been caused by human behavior.
Is the new variant more deadly? So far there is no evidence to suggest that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, although it is too early to tell.
Several experts have noted that in some cases, viral mutations that increase transmissibility are accompanied by a decrease in virulence and mortality rates.
“As viruses are transmitted, those that allow increased virological ‘success’ can be selected, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This usually leads to greater transmission and lower virulence,” Martin Hibberd, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the High School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in London, he told SMC.
Learn more about the coronavirus variant in the UK here.