A buyer is using a hand sanitizer at Ameya Yokocho Market in Tokyo’s Ueno District on December 30.
Photographer: Noriko Hayashi / Bloomberg
Photographer: Noriko Hayashi / Bloomberg
Japan’s second state of emergency is set to last a month, but public health experts have already expressed doubts that four weeks is enough time to slow the coronavirus, which is spreading at an alarming rate.
With residents increasingly facing fatigue from the virus and no legal framework to force compliance, the country could struggle to quickly turn the trend of infections down, experts say. Japan has reported new daily reports of infections for at least two days in the past week, with accelerated figures in the capital Tokyo. On Friday, Tokyo reported 2,392 confirmed cases, the second highest to date since recording on Thursday.
“I’m not sure if the situation can get better within a month,” Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University and a member of the expert group advising the government, told Bloomberg News. “It is certainly much more difficult to control the current situation compared to the summer outbreak.”
People dine at a restaurant on Ameya Yokocho Square in Tokyo on December 30th.
Photographer: Noriko Hayashi / Bloomberg
Japan has this time adopted a more limited emergency, which is mainly aimed at shortening restaurant hours and encouraging long-distance work. Cinemas, gyms, karaoke rooms and theme parks, all closed during last spring’s emergency, will remain open with reduced hours, while large events will still be allowed with reduced capacity.
While the measures currently apply only to the capital Tokyo and the three surrounding prefectures, Osaka regional authorities will ask the government to extend the emergency to include the country’s second largest metropolitan area. Osaka’s neighboring prefectures are to follow suit, limiting activity in several of the country’s economies.
Emerging regions will have to get out of “Stage 4”, the highest government designation for the pandemic, for status to be lifted. The stages analyze factors such as medical capacity, number of patients, test positivity rate and weekly increase in new infections. Experts will continuously examine the data to determine which areas meet the milestones, they said.
Emergency landing
Cases have risen in the four areas under Japan’s second state of emergency
Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Government; Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama prefectural governments
Read more: What does the second state of emergency in Tokyo mean?
Shigeru Omi, the head of the group of experts who advised the government, who said earlier this week that it would be “almost impossible” for Japan to come out of the emergency in a month, changed his tone when he informed the press along with Minister Yoshihide Suga on Thursday.
“It’s not very easy,” Omi said, “but I think it’s possible to reduce infections to a Stage 3 level in a month, if everyone does their best.” Omi said people should follow the suggested measures to stay home and avoid eating and drinking at night, but it was a difficult task to keep young people out of these places, where the virus has spread throughout the pandemic.
Future legal changes, which will include the ability to fine institutions that refuse close requests as well as the formalization of payments for cooperation would also be necessary, he added. The government will try to change the legislation when the diet resumes on January 18.
Yoshihide Suga on January 7th.
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Japan’s emergency adopted last spring began with a statement for seven prefectures. It was subsequently extended nationwide, and the duration was extended, before being phased out in late May.
Japan, which has won early praise for its ability to contain the virus without strict blockages, has seen challenges in its strategy of “living with the virus” as winter approaches. Cases began to rise nationally in November and have risen in recent weeks, especially in areas near Tokyo.
Shops closed in Tokyo’s Akihabara shopping district in early April.
Photographer: Soichiro Koriyama / Bloomberg
Tokyo failure
The country has strived for public co-operation in the same way as in the spring. Officials feared concerns about the virus had eased, while many bars and restaurants, already pushed to the limit in the past year, may be reluctant to cooperate with closure requests.
The severe situation in Tokyo is probably due to its failure to take stricter measures in early December, Oshitani said. Areas, including Osaka and Hokkaido, have asked restaurants to close as early as 9pm or close completely, as the moon is a high season for drinks and meals, with social groups and workplaces hosting traditional end-of-year parties.
“In December, Tokyo was unable to implement aggressive measures – which is probably why we are seeing an upward trend, especially in the Tokyo metropolitan area,” Oshitani said. “It was important to implement more aggressive measures in December because of the party season.”
Read more: The scientist who saved Japan once fights a new virus
Although the Tokyo authorities asked people to avoid these holidays, the effect was limited. Data provided by the virus task force showed that while the number of entertainment in Osaka and Hokkaido’s entertainment districts fell sharply after the closure requests, traffic actually increased in Tokyo.
Oshitani said he hopes that since January and February tend to be quiet social times in Japan, people will heed calls to stay home and slow the spread of the virus.
“I think we can control the situation,” he said. “It all depends on changing people’s behavior.”
– With the assistance of Gearoid Reidy
(Updates with Tokyo case numbers and the Osaka emergency request.)