VATICAN CITY (AP) – Infectious disease experts express concern over Pope Francis’ upcoming trip to Iraq, given a sharp rise in coronavirus infections there, a fragile health care system and the inevitable likelihood of Iraqis crowding in. to see him.
No one wants to tell Francis to cancel it, and the Iraqi government has every interest in showing relative stability by receiving the first pope at Abraham’s birthplace. The March 5-8 trip is expected to provide a much-needed spiritual boost besieged Christians in Iraq while promoting efforts to build Vatican bridges with the Muslim world.
But from a purely epidemiological point of view, as well as the public health message it sends, a papal trip to Iraq amid a global pandemic is not advisable, health experts say.
Their concerns were reinforced by Sunday’s news that the Vatican’s ambassador to Iraq, the main person on the trip, who allegedly escorted Francis to all his appointments, tested positive for COVID-19 and self-isolated.
In an e-mail to The Associated Press, the embassy said Archbishop Mitja Leskovar’s symptoms were mild and he was still preparing for Francis’ visit.
Beyond his case, experts note that wars, economic crises and an exodus of Iraqi professionals have devastated the country’s hospital system, while studies show that most new COVID-19 infections in Iraq are the highly contagious variant first identified. in Great Britain.
“I just don’t think it’s a good idea,” said Dr. Navid Madani, a virologist and founding director of the Center for Health Education Sciences in the Middle East and North Africa at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute of the Medical School. Harvard.
Iran-born Madani co-authored an article in The Lancet last year about the region’s unequal response to COVID-19, noting that Iraq, Syria and Yemen were ill-placed to cope, as they are still struggling with extremist insurgents and have 40 million people in need of humanitarian aid.
In a telephone interview, Madani said the Middle East is known for its hospitality and warned that the enthusiasm among Iraqis to receive a peacekeeper like Francis in a neglected, warlike part of the world could lead to involuntary violations. virus control measures.
“This could lead to insecure or widespread risks,” she said.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in infectious disease control at the University of Exeter College of Medicine, agreed.
“It’s a perfect storm to generate a lot of cases that you won’t be able to deal with,” he said.
Organizers promise to apply mask warrants, social distance and crowd limits, as well as the possibility of increasing test seats, two Iraqi government officials said.
Healthcare protocols are “critical but manageable,” a government official told the Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity.
And the Vatican has taken its own precautions, with the 84-year-old pope, his 20-member Vatican entourage and journalists over 70 years old on the papal plane, all vaccinated.
But the gathering of Iraqis in the north, center and south of the country to attend Francis’s inner and outer Masses, listen to his speeches and attend his prayer meetings are not vaccinated.
And that, scientists say, is the problem.
“We are in the midst of a global pandemic. And it’s important to get the right messages out, “Pankhania said. “The right messages are: the fewer peer interactions, the better.”
He questioned the optics of inoculating the Vatican delegation while the Iraqis are not and mentioned that the Iraqis will take such risks only to go to these events, because the pope was there.
Speaking to Vatican officials and the press, he said: “You are all protected from severe disease. So if you get infected, you won’t die. But people who come to see you can get infected and die. ”
“Is it wise in this circumstance to introduce yourself? And because you show up, do people come to see you and get infected? He asked.
The World Health Organization was diplomatic when asked about the wisdom of a papal trip to Iraq, saying countries should assess the risk of an event against the infection and then decide whether it should be postponed.
“It’s about managing that risk,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical director for COVID-19. “It’s about analyzing the epidemiological situation in the country and then making sure that if this event takes place, it can take place as safely as possible.”
Francis said he intends to leave even though most Iraqis must watch him on television to avoid infection. He told the Catholic News Service that “he will see that the pope is there in their country.”
Francis has frequently called for a fair distribution of vaccines and compliance with government health measures, although he tends not to wear face masks. Francis has for months avoided even the socially distant public from the Vatican to limit the chances of contagion.
Dr. Michael Head, a senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton School of Medicine, said the number of new daily cases in Iraq “is growing significantly at the moment,” with the Ministry of Health reporting about 4,000 a day, close to the first its wave in September.
Head said for any trip to Iraq, there must be effective infection control practices in place, including wearing a mask, washing hands, social distance and good indoor ventilation.
“We hope to see proactive approaches to fighting infections during the pope’s visit to Baghdad,” he said.
The Iraqi government imposed a modified blockade and a shutdown in mid-February amid a further escalation of cases, closing schools and mosques and leaving restaurants and cafes open only to be taken. But the government has ruled against a complete shutdown because of the difficulty of implementing it and the financial impact on Iraq’s economy, Iraqi officials told the PA.
Many Iraqis remain cowards in the use of masks and some doubt the severity of the virus.
Madani, a Harvard virologist, asked tour organizers to let science and data guide their decision-making.
A decision to reschedule or postpone the papal trip or move it to a virtual format would “have a fairly large impact on the global leadership,” because “it would signal the prioritization of Iraqi public safety,” she said.
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Kullab reported this in Baghdad. Jamey Keaten from Geneva contributed.
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