The Israelis will go to the polls next Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, with Netanyahu campaigning aggressively against a divided opposition.
Why does it matter: Netanyahu’s narrow path to a 61-seat majority would force him to form an ultra-right-wing government, dependent on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of the Knesset. With a majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other steps to delay or end his corruption process.
- He denies that this is his goal, but potential members of his coalition have announced that they will support him.
Game status: Current polls show Netanyahu’s 58-seat bloc, but things could easily change in his direction on election day.
- Israel’s electoral threshold of 3.25% means that several small parties will win around four seats or be left out altogether.
- Voter fatigue, especially on the left, also makes the presence unpredictable.
Three scenarios
- If one or more of the three small anti-Netanyahu parties fail, this could change the entire balance of power and lead Netanyahu to the magic number of 61. This is a very likely scenario.
- If participants fall among Netanyahu’s supporters and the radical right-wing Zionist Religious Party fails to cross the threshold, there could be a window for a center-right government of Netanyahu’s opponents. This is an unlikely scenario.
- If the current polls turn out to be accurate and neither side can form a coalition, Israel will move to the fifth election in the summer. It is very possible.
The split of the opposition actually made life more difficult for Netanyahu in one sense: unlike the last three cycles, he does not have a clear rival on the left to gather his supporters.
- Rather than a head-to-head race in which Netanyahu can repeat the argument that “it’s us or them,” he has three opponents, all mid-sized parties.
The other suitors
1. Yair Lapid and the centrist party Yesh Atid (There is a Future). A former journalist, Lapid is the current Knesset opposition leader.
- What to look for: Lapid has not even said he wants to be prime minister and says he is willing to let someone else do the work to get rid of Netanyahu. Netanyahu focused his campaign on Lapid, but for the most part failed to position it as a head-to-head contest.
- By numbers: Yesh Atid gets about 20 seats in the polls, a second away from Netanyahu’s Likud, which has about 30.
2. Naftali Bennett and the right-wing party Yamina (Right). A former technology entrepreneur, Bennett focused his campaign on COVID-19 and the economy.
- What to look for: While Bennett stressed the need to replace Netanyahu, he did not rule out joining a Netanyahu-led government. This could turn him into a kingdom if the election results are not final.
- By numbers: Yamina is voting for only about 12 seats, but it may be impossible to form a coalition that excludes Netanyahu without handing Bennett the post of prime minister.
3. Gideon Sa’ar and the right-wing New Hope party. Sa’ar, a former education and interior minister, left Likud in an attempt to position himself as an older school and a less populist right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.
- By numbers: Sa’ar’s party entered the polls, from about 18 seats to nine in the latest polls.
Bottom line: Only a power-sharing agreement between Lapid, Bennett and Sa’ar could produce a new Israeli government without Netanyahu. Such cooperation between the three will be very difficult to achieve.