Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hoped to declare victory over the pandemic before the March 23 elections, but the new fast-growing variants of COVID-19 have shattered those hopes.
Why does it matter: Netanyahu’s main political vulnerability is to deal with the pandemic. He acknowledged that the number of his surveys will be directly linked to vaccination rates, new infections and deaths, as well as his ability to reopen the economy.
He wanted to base his electoral pressure in the world’s leading vaccination campaign in Israel, which has already seen 21% of the population over the age of 16 getting both doses, including 70% in the highest priority groups (health workers and people over the age of 60).
- But Israel is also in the midst of the worst COVID-19 wave so far, with record daily deaths. The capacity of the medical system is stretched close to a breaking point.
- The four-week blockade has just begun to slow Israel’s rate of new cases, which remains among the highest in the world, adjusted for population. Israeli officials say the rapid spread is due to new variants of the virus.
- The government is likely to extend the blockade for another week or two.
Between the lines: The infection rate is particularly high in ultra-Orthodox communities, which have largely not complied with the blocking rules and have kept schools open even if they were closed elsewhere.
- Netanyahu faced harsh criticism for not imposing the blockade on the ultra-Orthodox community, which is an important part of his right-wing political bloc.
- When police tried to impose the blockade in recent days, violent riots broke out in ultra-Orthodox cities. This has only generated more criticism of Netanyahu.
- A Channel 12 poll released on Tuesday found that 61% of Israelis – and 52% of right-wing voters – want ultra-Orthodox parties excluded from the next coalition government.
Game status: Recent polls have shown Netanyahu’s Likud party stable at 29-30 seats, the public’s praise for the balanced vaccination campaign by critics of blocking and increasing the death toll.
What’s next: Netanyahu’s wider political bloc is out of the 61 seats needed to form the next coalition. Without a positive change in COVID-19 numbers by March, he will have difficulty reaching it.