Copenhagen in February 2020.
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Vaccines are slowly but surely spreading around the world. Does that mean it’s time to think about travel?
The tourism industry would like to say yes. According to the latest data from The World Travel and Tourism Council, released in early November, said travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic were projected to draw $ 4.7 trillion in global gross domestic product in 2020 alone.
But medical professionals still call for caution – a message that will remain imperative, even after people have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
Among their warnings: vaccines are not 100% effective; it takes weeks to build immunity (after second shot), little is known about the ability to transmit Covid-19, even after immunization; and the herd’s immunity will be far away. Their consensus is that the risks will remain, but freedom of movement can increase safely – allowing at least certain types of travel – among people with protection against the virus.
Yes, you will still need to wear a mask.
Here’s what else you need to know about travel safety in the coming months, whether you’ve already gotten hit or looking for normalcy somewhere on the horizon.
What we know and what we don’t know
The Covid-19 vaccines approved so far, both in the US and in Europe, have proven to be exceptionally safe, effective and the most powerful tool to date in combating the pandemic. However, there are known unknowns, especially when it comes to the possible transmission of the virus after vaccination.
A nurse is administering a vaccine at NYU-Langone Hospital in New York.
Photographer: Kevin Hagen / AP
This question boils down to one point: Clinical trials for currently approved vaccines, including those from Pfizer and Moderna, did not include regular PCR testing of study participants. Without data on their ability to carry the virus, there is enough conclusive evidence to suggest that vaccines lead to 95% effective protection against symptomatic infection, says Dr. Kristin Englund, an infectious disease specialist at the Cleveland Clinic.
“Mostly if you are vaccinated [a disease]- says chickenpox or measles – you should not be able to transmit that virus to anyone else “, explains Englund, adding that there is no known reason to believe that Covid-19 or related vaccines should behave differently. “It simply came to our notice then [with Covid-19 vaccines as well], but we have to wait until studies prove it before we can substantially let go of our guard ”.
There are other important unknowns. “To see a vaccine that is 95% effective – these are remarkable numbers, much better than we ever anticipated,” says Englund. “But we do not now have the ability to know who will have a good answer [to the vaccine] and who will be one of the 5%. ”
How to think about the immunity of the herd
Another unknown, to a lesser extent, is what will be needed to achieve herd immunity.
“The general consensus is that it will last somewhere between 70% and 80% [of the population being immune] to eliminate the risk on a large scale – maybe more, ”says Dr. Scott Weisenberg, who is both director of NYU’s infectious disease fellowship program and medical director of the university’s travel medicine program. “We are many months away from that, assuming that the vaccine effectively eliminates transmission and that people receive it.”
At best, Weisenberg believes that the herd’s immunity can be reached in the United States sometime this summer – pending the approval of easier-to-distribute vaccines, such as the one from AstraZeneca, which could accelerate the launch.
However, it is very unlikely.
“Accepting the vaccine is a big key question,” he added. At its point, the World Health Organization called the hesitation of the vaccine as one of the the top 10 public health threats in 2019, just before Covid-19 became part of the picture.
But the herd’s immunity can be cut and diced in many ways.
“You can talk about staff immunity in a state, in a smaller community or even in a family,” adds Englund. “So if everyone in a room is vaccinated, but one, you should be able to give that person more protection.”
This is a remarkable consideration for family gatherings whose younger members may take longer to qualify for the vaccine than older or at-risk members. (Currently approved vaccines have not yet been tested or approved for children by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which may prevent air travel among multigenerational groups until 2021.)
A safari in Kenya might seem like a good, socially remote option, but you’ll want to consider your transfers.
Source: Original Africa
Deciding where to go on your next vacation – and who to travel with – may have more to do with antibodies than normal considerations such as weather and price.
“Certainly, look at the current rate of infection in that area and absolutely, the absorption of vaccination in that population – these are two very important things,” says Englund.
Don’t be surprised if it feels like a counterintuitive exercise, Weisenberg adds.
For example, in New York, where it is estimated that 25% of the population has already contracted Covid-19, the immunity of the herd may require a proportionately smaller number of vaccinations to be achieved if previously infected people retain equivalent antibodies.
“The risk [of picking up or spreading the virus] it could actually be relatively low, ”says Weisenberg about visiting Manhattan, given the strictness of the blocking measures, the historical acceptance of vaccines in urban areas compared to rural areas and high Covid-19 test rates among the local population – despite the incredible population density.
You go to Kenya, where you may have a remote social safari, he adds, and you may need to go through places like Nairobi, where testing is low and it is difficult to get an accurate picture of the risk in real time.
The evolving definition of “safe travel”
Expect the definition of safe travel to change week by week, especially as parts of the world lower the wave of holiday travel cases, and new variants of the virus.
“You have to take into account the problems of going somewhere and bringing the virus back to an area where this is a consequence,” says Weisenberg. He hopes the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will eventually have destination level alerts, depending on local risk, in the agency’s measles alerts, but says, “It’s too widespread right now to isolate itself. so”.
A good idea might be to look up the hospital availability figures (and especially the intensive care bed) before embarking on a holiday anywhere, to make sure your local system isn’t already overwhelmed.
A Delta plane is disinfected.
Photographer: Michael A. McCoy / Getty Images North America
Weisenberg also believes that the increasing accuracy of rapid Covid-19 antigen testing will help ensure safety as mobility becomes faster; it should be noted that the new US entry requirements include negative test results, even for those who have already been vaccinated.
“I will get on a plane; I will be honest with you, “says Englund. “I will wear a mask, I will make sure that we have places where we are not sitting next to someone else, with adequate space between them, using all the hand sanitizer.
“We’ll get an Airbnb and spend quality time on a beach,” she continues, “and if we visit local sites, we’ll pretend we weren’t vaccinated – approaching things with the same precautions as if we had -vaccine. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. ”