London – Iranian and US negotiators resume talks in Vienna on Thursday that could eventually resurrect nuclear agreement hit back in 2015. But that’s great could.
This week, Iran stepped up its uranium enrichment program in a breach of the agreement, which, with the US giving up and Iran violating several rules, is only now alive.
President Joe Biden’s administration wants to reverse the unilateral withdrawal of his predecessor from the nuclear deal, but the process will always be delicate. Sunday’s attack on the Iranian nuclear plant in Natanz has further complicated matters.
Iran has responded to what called an act of “nuclear terrorism” by Israel with the announcement that it would be start enriching uranium by 60% purity – a big step compared to the current maximum of 20%.
While 60% enriched uranium is not yet technically quality weapons (90% or more), stockpiling could reduce the time Iran should manufacture – something Iran vehemently insists is not he wants to do.
Iran Atomic Energy Organization through PA
President Hassan Rouhani has no doubt said that “60% enrichment is a response to your wickedness”, making it clear that the Iranian regime blames the US and Israel for the current escalation of tension.
Iran said on Friday it had begun enriching uranium to a higher level. The country has said it intends to use the 60% enriched product for radiopharmaceuticals, which can be used to treat diseases, including cancer.
But France, Germany and the United Kingdom, three countries that are also parties to the Vienna negotiations, have expressed “grave concern” over the move and said Iran has no “credible civilian need for enrichment in Vienna.” this level ”.
In fact, extra-enriched uranium would be less valuable to Iran as a medical tool than as a new bargaining chip in Vienna.
Stopping the 60% enrichment is now another thing Iran can offer in exchange for lifting US sanctions.
The talks are difficult because Iran has refused to meet face-to-face with US negotiators. All proposals and counter-proposals must be forwarded back and forth by European diplomats.
A senior US State Department official, who spoke to reporters last week, revealed the frustration it causes.
“You can imagine, for all these questions, how hard it is when the United States says the EU, the EU tells the Iranians, the Iranians say the EU and then they come back to us,” the official said. “That really makes it slower and more complicated.”
There is no doubt that both sides want an agreement. Iran needs to lift US sanctions so that it can start selling oil freely to support its damaged economy. The United States wants international cooperation and surveillance to ensure that Iran does not secretly build nuclear weapons that would destabilize the Middle East.
The first round of negotiations last week was about building an agenda – setting out a list of things both the US and Iran should do to return to the terms of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan ( JCPOA).
“Overall, the talks were productive,” a State Department spokesman said in last week’s talks. “The atmosphere was very constructive.”
This week, if all goes well, Iran and the US – again through European intermediaries – will begin to find out in more detail who does what and when. They will also address how each movement can be verified. For example, if the US commits to lifting sanctions on oil sales, how much will Iran want to trade before making sure there are no obstacles?
Iranian leader’s press office / Prospect / Getty
For now, Iran’s top leader is firmly on the fence in connection with the negotiations. On the one hand, he said it’s probably a waste of time.
“The offerings they offer are usually arrogant and humiliating … not worth looking at,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in an address on Monday, the first day of Ramadan.
On the other hand, he allows talks to continue, even after Sunday’s deeply damaging and humiliating attack on the Natanz nuclear facility.
There is, however, a chance that if things do not go well this week in Vienna, Khamenei may decide to slow down or even suspend talks until after Iran’s June national elections, when a new difficult president will be elected.
As Iran takes significant steps away from the nuclear deal – including Friday’s claim to 60% uranium enrichment – the imminent change of presidency could put a completely inaccessible return to agreement back.