The Mets are weighing whether to invest in another big item this offseason or add more players to deepen the overall roster quality.
The significant piece cannot be a free capture agent for JT Realmuto unless it intends to turn James McCann into a $ 40 million reserve. The Mets have not been connected in any recent commercial discussions for Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant.
That leaves Trevor Bauer.
Or not. Steve Cohen has made his billions as a risk assessment expert. The decision could be, for example, that the Mets could get as many victories by adding, say, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brad Hand, while making a much smaller financial commitment than Bauer alone.
Or does Cohen see this: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson with Noah Syndergaard on their wings? The national teams won the World Series in 2019 with a rotation that looked like this and, without a doubt, less offense and bullpen than the Mets currently have.
However, almost any Bauer deal would raise the Mets beyond the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold, and Cohen has indicated that he wants to stay below that number in 2021. In addition, because Bauer has been offered the qualification fee. to the Reds and rejected it, the Mets would lose their second pick in the June draft and $ 500,000 in international slot money if they signed it. And the Mets are committed to trying to rebuild their farming system.
This leads to signs that the Mets are content to have added the center fielder they wanted in Francisco Lindor. No one would be surprised if on a spring training day there is an alert for a press conference to announce the new $ 300 million extension of Lindor and this is the substantial financial expense this year. Between Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, Trevor May, keeping Stroman and a few more useful plays or two, the Mets can trumpet a strong off-season first under Cohen, albeit with disturbing revelations that led to the dismissal of new GM Jared Porter.
However, Bauer is confused. I can’t remember that when Sandy Alderson was hired as team president, he mentioned that he didn’t mind the sizzle when asked about the bold Bauer. After all, Alderson was the guy who oversaw Jose Canseco’s Bash brothers, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, and Dennis Eckersley three decades ago. Bauer has a huge presence on social media. Sometimes it brought controversy. You can expect more, because Bauer is determined to build his brand. But in doing so, the marginal advantage is that it also helps increase interest in baseball and can bring fans who are not aligned with a team to a new organization.
But at what cost will a team see if everything is true? At what risk?
The top players on the market, despite COVID-19, have so far been well treated. This may not be true with Bauer. Due to the lack of sustained excellence or personality concerns.
However, until Bauer gets the big payday – more than seven years of Max Scherzer at $ 210 million, maybe north of Stephen Strasburg’s seven years at $ 245 million – I’ll think it remains both a goal of his camp, as well as a possibility. A few years ago, Bryce Harper faced a short commitment, but with a record annual value by the Dodgers or less per year, but with much more money from the Phillies. Like most players, Harper got the biggest guarantee – $ 330 million in 13 years.
Bauer can handle the same puzzle very well, in part because the Dodgers at least hide it. And Bauer is rare (maybe unique). He has such a strong faith in his training methods that he has talked about the desire to go short or even year after year and return to the market. Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano recently re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants for four years, but with a waiver after each season to retain the right to try to come to MLB earlier. Bauer might ask for something similar – a shorter term for less money, but with the chance to go out to pursue longer money annually if he wishes.
But I’d assume taking less money in total is a nonstarter, unless the average value exceeds Gerrit Cole’s current record of $ 36 million a year. Would any team go, say, four years at $ 160 million for the 2020 NL Cy Young winner?
Dodgers? The Blue Jays? I always wonder about Gemini. They have been watching the latest in recent years, such as Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler, without assuring them. Their head of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, had Bauer in Cleveland and knows all the techniques that Bauer used that brought animus to the beginning of his Indian term have become commonplace in the game now and that Bauer had a goodwill and a positive impact on starters such as Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger.
If relationships matter (and normally do), GM twins Thad Levine and one of Bauer’s agents, Jon Fetterolf, were co-captains of the 1993 baseball team at Haverford College – though 1992 team captain Dodgers executive Josh Byrnes , is even closer to Fetterolf. Yes, always watch the Dodgers.
But should we follow the Mets? Cohen obviously has the money. Does he want the risk?