NEW DELHI (AP) – Indian city of Pune is running out of fans as coronavirus patients gasp in its hospitals. Social networks are full of people looking for beds, while relatives crowd into pharmacies looking for antiviral drugs that hospitals have long since exhausted.
The growth, which can be seen across India, is particularly alarming, as the country is a major vaccine manufacturer and a critical supplier of the UN-backed COVAX initiative. This program aims to bring photos to some of the poorest countries in the world. Already rising cases have forced India to focus on meeting its domestic demand – and delaying deliveries to COVAX and elsewhere, including the United Kingdom and Canada.
India said on Tuesday it would authorize a number of new vaccines, but experts said the decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on available deliveries in the country. For now, its focus on domestic needs “means there is very little left, if any, for COVAX and everyone else,” said Brook Baker, a vaccine expert at Northeastern University.
Pune is the hardest hit city in India, but other major cities are in crisis, with new daily infections reaching record levels, and experts say the wrong steps stemming from the belief that the pandemic is “over” are returning to haunt the country.
When infections began to subside in India in September, many concluded that the worst was over. Masks and social distancing were abandoned, while the government gave mixed signals about the level of risk. When cases began to rise again in February, the authorities were allowed to fight.
“No one had a long-term perspective on the pandemic,” said Dr. Vineeta Bal, who is studying the immune system at the city’s Indian Institute of Education and Scientific Research. She mentioned, for example, that instead of consolidating existing hospitals, temporary sites had been set up. In Pune, authorities are reviving one of these makeshift facilities, which was crucial to the city’s fight against the virus last year.
India is not alone. Many European countries that have seen declines in cases are facing new increases, and infection rates have increased in each global region, partly driven by new virus variants.
In the last week, India has recorded an average of over 143,000 cases a day. It has now reported 13.6 million cases of the virus since the beginning of the pandemic – surpassing Brazil’s past level and becoming second only to the United States, although both countries have much smaller populations. Deaths also rose to more than 170,000. Even these figures, experts say, are probably insufficient.
Almost all states show an increase in the number of infections, and Pune – home to 4 million people – is now left with only 28 unused ventilators Monday night for the more than 110,000 COVID-19 patients.
The country now faces the gigantic challenge of vaccinating millions of people, while also tracking tens of thousands of infected people every day and preventing the collapse of the health system.
Dilnaz Boga has been in and out of hospitals in recent months to visit a sick relative and witnessed direct change as cases began to grow. The beds were suddenly unavailable. The nurses warned visitors to be careful. Posters recommending proper wearing of the mask have appeared everywhere.
And then, earlier this month, Boga and her 80-year-old mother gave positive results. Doctors suggested that her mother be hospitalized, but initially there were no beds available. Both she and her mother are recovering now.
The growing concern about the increase in cases is that the country’s vaccination effort could also be problematic: several Indian states have reported a lack of doses, even though the federal government has insisted there are enough stocks.
After a slow start, India has recently surpassed the United States in the number of photos it offers every day and now has an average of 3.6 million. But with more than four times the number of people and starting later, he gave at least one dose to only 7% of his population.
The western Indian state of Maharashtra, home to Pune and the financial capital of Mumbai, has seen nearly half of the country’s new infections in the past week. Some vaccination centers in the state have removed people because of shortages.
At least half a dozen Indian states report such low stocks, but Health Minister Harsh Vardhan called the concerns “deplorable attempts by some state governments to divert attention from their failures.”
However, India moved on Tuesday to expand the number of available vaccines, authorizing the use of all coronavirus outbreaks that the World Health Organization or regulators have urgently issued in the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom or Japan. Indian regulators have also accepted Sputnik V from Russia for emergency use.
Concerns about the supply of vaccines have led to criticism of the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who exported 64.5 million doses to other nations. Rahul Gandhi, the face of the main opposition party in Congress, asked Modi in a letter if the government’s export strategy is “an effort to get publicity at the expense of its own citizens.”
Now, India has reversed course. Last month, COVAX said deliveries of up to 90 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines were delayed because the Serum Institute in India decided to prioritize domestic needs.
The Pune-based institute and the world’s largest vaccine maker told the Associated Press earlier this month that it could restart vaccine exports by June – if new coronavirus infections decrease. But continued growth could lead to more delays.
And experts warn that India could look at just that.
They suspect that the most likely cause behind the large-scale growth is the presence of several infectious variants, including a new and potentially annoying variant that was first detected in India itself.
India needs to vaccinate faster and step up measures to stop the virus from spreading, said Krishna Udayakumar, founding director of Duke University’s Global Center for Health Innovation. “The next few months in India are extremely dangerous,” he said.
However, some say the government’s confusing messages failed to communicate the risk.
Modi noted the need for people to wear masks, but in the past few weeks, while on the campaign trail, he has delivered speeches in front of tens of thousands of maskless supporters.
The federal government also allowed huge gatherings during Hindu festivals such as Kumbh Mela, where millions of followers daily take a holy bath in the Ganges River. In response to concerns that it could turn into an “over-spread” event, Chief Minister Tirath Singh Rawat said that “faith in God will overcome the fear of the virus.”
“Optics is so important and we completely confuse it,” said Dr. Shahid Jameel, who is studying viruses at Ashoka University in India.
Dozens of cities and towns have imposed partial restrictions and night extinguishers to try to reduce infections, but Modi ruled out the possibility of another blockade nationwide. He also rejected calls from states to provide vaccinations to younger people.
Meanwhile, experts say the current limit for providing vaccines to those over 45 should be relaxed and that fires should be targeted in areas facing surges.
“The burden of COVID-19 is uneven,” Udayakumar said. “And the response needs to be tailored to local needs.”
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Associated Press journalists Rafiq Maqbool from Mumbai and Maria Cheng from London contributed to this report.
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The Associated Press Department of Health and Science receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. AP is solely responsible for all content.