MASLOVKA, Russia – Deep in a pine forest in southern Russia, military trucks, their silhouettes blurred by camouflage mesh, appear among the trees. Soldiers of all-wheel drive vehicles sneak along dirt roads. And outside a newly erected tent camp with sentries, Kalashnikovs sat on his shoulders, going back and forth.
In the last month or so, Russia has carried out what analysts call the largest military buildup along the border with Ukraine since the start of the Kiev war with separatists backed by Russia seven years ago.
It is far from a clandestine operation: during a trip to southern Russia by a New York Times journalist, evidence of the accumulation was everywhere to be seen.
The mobilization is sounding the alarm within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, European capitals and Washington, and is increasingly seen as an early foreign policy test for the Biden administration, which has just hit Moscow with a new round of sanctions. Russia responded almost immediately, announcing on Friday that it would expel 10 American diplomats.
US sanctions have been aimed at punishing Russia for many past actions, including its involvement in the US elections, the piracy of the “Solar Winds” of government agencies and corporations, various disinformation efforts and the annexation of Crimea.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrii Taran told MEPs on Wednesday that Russia now garrisons about 110,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. In Washington, the CIA director told Congress that it remains unclear whether the buildup is a show of strength or a preparation for something worse.
Even if the purpose of the accumulation remains unclear, military analysts say it was certainly meant to be seen. A show of strength is hardly a good show if no one is watching.
“It’s happening in a very visible way,” said Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at CNA, a think tank based in Arlington, Virginia, that monitored military activity. “I do it openly, so we can see it. It is intentional. ”
In fact, so that the movements do not go unnoticed, the Russian army issued statements announcing some of them in advance. The high visibility cost Russia any element of surprise, causing analysts to minimize, but not rule out the possibility of an effective attack.
More likely, they say, the accumulation is intended as a warning to the West not to give Russia to itself. After four years of deference from the Trump administration, President Vladimir V. Putin is now in an uncomfortable position, Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center said in a recent essay.
The Kremlin’s relations with Europe are at their lowest level since the Gorbachev era, exacerbated by evidence of Russian intrigue and interference. “At the same time,” Mr. Trenin wrote, “coordination between US and European policies on Russia has increased substantially under Biden.”
Sensitive to any weakness, Putin cannot help but acknowledge that Russia is still on President Biden’s list of foreign policy priorities.
Putin could also have been provoked by the actions of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who in recent months has moved troops close to the border with separatist regions, shut down Russia-friendly TV stations and accused some separatist leaders of treason.
From this perspective, the mass troops could also serve under pressure from Ukraine to change their positions in talks to further resolve the war under Russian conditions.
Up close, the Russian accumulation is even harder to miss. Traces of tanks cross a parking lot inside the village. Roadside children are dazed as six-wheeled military trucks pass by, hitting clouds of dust. Russian and foreign reporters appeared daily to follow the buzz of the activity.
Interviewed on a recent and pleasant spring day, as they turned the damp, black soil of their garden plots for planting, villagers near the Pogonovo training ground, an epicenter of this accumulation, seemed happy to play with the alleged cloak. of secrecy.
Yevdokia Novikova, 86, a retired nurse, said military activity on all sides was sending a message to the West: “It is useless to fight Russia,” she said of the message.
But then, narrowing his eyes at the suspicion that a foreigner was asking questions about military vehicles seen, he added that the activity should not be seen at all. “Take care!” she said. “If you write the wrong words, you could be hit with a stick.”
But this otherwise remarkable rural region on the Russian steppe, about 110 miles from the Ukrainian border, serves unmistakably as a center for construction. Commercially available satellite images and images posted on social networks showed hundreds of armored vehicles, either traveling on the roads or parked in the pine forest.
A train depot in the city center is used to transfer tracked vehicles from wagons to platform trucks, according to posts on social media confirmed as authentic by the conflict intelligence team, a group of independent Russian military analysts.
Giant military trucks are parked at the sight of the roads, which, strangely, remained open to public traffic.
A video posted online and authenticated by the conflict intelligence team showed a huge, targeted rocket launcher named TOS, nicknamed Pinocchio for his nose-like domed weapon. He collided on a flatbed truck between the summer houses in Maslovka.
The flatbed trucks also carried armored personnel carriers called the BMP, the Russian equivalent of Bradley combat vehicles. Artillery, infantry, special forces units, tanks, missiles and naval landing craft were all photographed unfolding towards the Ukrainian border.
Earlier this month, the Russian military issued a press release announcing the redistribution of the landing craft closer to Ukraine, in case anyone was curious. The ships sailed along the rivers and canals that connect the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea. The ministry posted pictures.
Mr Biden signaled a desire to decline. In conciliation comments on Thursday, he said the new sanctions were not the most severe the United States could have taken. “I chose to be proportionate,” he said. “The United States is not looking to begin a cycle of escalation and conflict with Russia.” He proposed a summit meeting with Mr Putin.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov has repeatedly said that Russia has its rights as garrison soldiers wherever it likes within its borders. Russian Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu said he had ordered a national military training check in response to NATO’s aggressive actions.
For the most part, people living around the Pogonovo training ground have expressed support for Russia’s muscle flexion.
“If he had calmed down, we would have done the same,” said Aleksei, a retired Russian Air Force mechanic who refused to give his last name, for fear of the authorities, about Ukrainians.
But, he added, the Russian army has often trained nearby, and activity this spring has not been unusual. “There’s no alarm here,” he said, shrugging. “Not at all.”
Not all the inhabitants were so friendly. A man went to the fence of his yard, frowned and asked me, “Why hasn’t the FSB caught you yet?” referring to Russia’s internal intelligence agency.
Leaving the village, the military police officers stopped our car – and asked us to follow them right into the military training area, for a conversation with a commander.
The road led past thick, green military trucks parked in the woods, some with communications antennas protruding from the rooftops and into a tent city, all disguised as camouflage nets. “Your presence here is not forbidden,” said the commander, Captain Kirill Smirnov. “Also not recommended.”
The United States and its allies are increasingly concerned about the buildup of Russian troops, Senate Warning William J. Burns, the CIA director, warned Wednesday. The accumulation includes sufficient forces for a possible incursion.
But Mr Burns said US officials were still trying to determine whether the Kremlin was preparing for military action or just sending a signal.