This is the projection of the University of Liverpool, in England, according to the epidemiologist Alfonso Rosales. It would go from 278 to almost 600 new infections a day
According to epidemiologists at the University of Liverpool in England, a bleak outlook is expected for El Salvador in the first months of 2021.
Alfonso Rosales, doctor and epidemiologist, mentioned that, according to studies conducted by this entity, “a doubling of cases in El Salvador is expected, which we will see in 135 days. In four and a half months (April), we will double the number of current cases we have (276 on December 29). The pressure it will exert on the health system will be much greater than the one we experienced in the previous peak ”that the country suffered, between June and July.
Rosales, who participated as a guest on Channel 33 on Wednesday morning, along with infectologist Iván Solano Leiva, also explained that in Central America, El Salvador has a 2% acceleration of new Sars-Cov-2 infections on week. , while other countries in the area slow down: Guatemala by -18%, Honduras -21% and Costa Rica by -7%. Very serious is happening in Panama, which is undergoing a 36% acceleration, according to Rosales.
SEE ALSO: The government must report the risks and benefits of COVID-19 vaccines
The specialist considered that this increase in cases in El Salvador “is related to the behavior of the population this Christmas, the protection measures have been relaxed too much, there is too much crowding.”
Solano Leiva agreed that “in El Salvador we are facing a return of cases, after the largest number of cases we had in July, the peak of the first COVID outbreak in our country. For three or four weeks, we have seen that these averages, according to official data, have increased, today over 250 cases a day “.
Although he insisted that the government’s figures are not fully reliable, he stressed that even these figures reflect an increase. Solano Leiva warned that “we see in the public system that a percentage of beds for ICU and hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is beginning to be observed” and regretted that everything indicates that “we will have the beginning of 2021 with more cases at risk of the health system to collapse again, as happened in the fateful months of June and July ”.
The capacity of the hospital in the country is already reaching the maximum capacity for the care of patients with COVID-19, explained Solano Leiva, and detailed that at El Salvador Hospital in Cifco, “until a few days ago, we were informed that the capacity to use from ICU beds 92% were occupied. In 80% UCIN as an intermediary, and from 25 to 30% as general beds ”.
SEE ALSO: Medical College: Government has agreement with Pfizer to apply this vaccine in El Salvador
Regarding the situation in other healthcare centers, Solano Leiva said that “the surgical doctor (of the ISSS) has around 50 to 60 beds for patients with COVID, and in recent weeks one of the two services for this thing is almost complete. And the ICU of the General Hospital treats patients with COVID, just like Amatepec of social security and, with each passing day, its capacity increases ”, with the patients confirmed with the new Coronavirus.
Several private hospitals have not received patients with COVID-19 for months and, according to Solano Leiva, in this sector “the only hospital that receives is the Escalón Medical Center, which has a capacity of 15 beds, which until last night (Tuesday) ) were full, something I hadn’t seen in weeks.
Both doctors regretted that the management of the pandemic was politicized in the country, instead of offering a technical and scientific approach. In this regard, Solano Leiva criticized that “it is a lie that the Ministry of Health does not have the necessary tools to take relevant measures to help reduce the spread of COVID-19 in our country” and noted that the Health Code allows economic sanctions or civil.
In the opinion of the representative also of the Association of Physicians of El Salvador, “The Health Code, in article 131, establishes what must be done when there are epidemics in the country, what measures can be taken. Unfortunately, I have heard the Minister (Health, Francisco Alabí) and many officials say that their hands are tied, that they cannot establish a type of economic or civil sanctions or that they do not denounce those people who carry out activities in which there are massive events. . , where prevention measures are not maintained ”.
In order to avoid the double projection of the number of cases in April, both doctors urged the population not to lower their guard with the necessary preventive measures and called on the Government to better communicate the risks of COVID-19 and ways to avoid contagion.