The much-hoped immunity of the herd against the new coronavirus is unlikely to occur in many places around the world by the end of 2021, a World Health Organization official said this week, when the warning in the coming months will be “critical”.
“As we approach the beginning of the end, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, a WHO scientist, told CNBC on Wednesday. “However, we have to go through another tunnel, and the next few months will be very critical.”
Speaking about the herd’s immunity, “it will take until the end of 2021 until we start to see a certain level of population immunity in some countries,” she continued.
In the United States, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, recently said that the immunity of the herd will likely be reached if at least 75% of the population receives the COVID-19 vaccine, which is expected to be available on large scale in the spring.
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Speaking to CNBC, Swaminathan warned people “we must keep our guard up” until the herd’s immunity is obtained, ie taking the important measures recommended by experts – such as wearing a mask and social distance – until then.
“We need to do everything we know how to reduce transmission and the chances of people getting sick because of it,” she said. “While we can look forward – certainly by the end of next year – to a much better picture, the next few months, I think, will be difficult.”
Swaminathan also spoke briefly with CNBC about the new strain of coronavirus that has been identified in the UK, noting that although it is more transmissible, the option “does not appear to increase clinical severity or make things worse” for those who contract it.
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She said the two COVID-19 shots, developed by Pfizer and Moderna, which have been given emergency approval in several countries, including the US, could be modified “easily” if necessary – although they are expected to be protected against any new variants as they currently exist.
“If needed, it could be done,” she said. “But right now, I think most people think the current generation of vaccines should work very well.”
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Swaminathan’s comments came the same day, with British Health Secretary Matt Hancock announcing that another version of the novel coronavirus had been detected in two people who were in contact with cases resulting from recent trips to South Africa.
The variant, the second to be recently identified in the country, is “more transmissible and seems to have moved more than the new variant discovered in the UK,” he said.
Alexandria Hein of Fox News contributed to this report.