I’m worried that people will be re-infected with some of the new coronavirus strains

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We will never end this damn pandemic. Ever.

Groundhog Day today, right? Well, let me quote the viral prognosis: “It will be cold, it will be gray and it will last you for the rest of your life.”

Because I’m stupid, it never occurred to me that a mutant strain of the virus capable of evading antibodies produced by a first-generation version of a vaccine is also capable of escaping antibodies produced by a first-generation version of the virus itself. If you were infected with the common coronavirus a few months ago and overcame it, there is no logical reason why you should be protected from infection by a new strain that has evolved enough that your body’s immune system does not. more “recognize”. Which is exactly what is happening in South Africa, according to Fauci. People who have had COVID 1.0 receive COVID 2.0 due to the variant that appeared there. Watch here for a few minutes.

It seems that Africa is not just a place where people are re-infected. Manaus, a city in Brazil, was devastated by COVID last year. The reward for enduring a fierce outbreak is the immunity of the flock among the survivors – if not the virus moves to the point where it is actually a new pathogen again, in which case there is still a fierce outbreak. This is what Manaus seems to be facing now:

Even in a year of horrible suffering, what is happening in Brazil is noticeable. In the rainforest city of Manaus, home to 2 million people, it seems that corpses are dumped in mass graves as quickly as they can be dug. Hospitals have run out of oxygen, and people with potentially treatable cases of COVID-19 are dying of asphyxiation. This nature and the scale of mortality have not been seen since the first months of the pandemic …

The data seemed to support the idea that the herd’s immunity in Manaus was near. In Science, this month, researchers mapped the virus uptake last year: in April, blood tests found that 4.8% of the city’s population had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Until June, the number was up to 52.5 percent. Because people who become infected do not always test positive for antibodies, the researchers estimated that by June, about two-thirds of the city had been infected. By November, the estimate was about 76%. In The Lancet this week, a team of Brazilian researchers noted that even if these estimates were to fall by a large margin, infection at this scale “should give the population significant immunity to avoid a larger outbreak.” Indeed, it seemed to be. The city has largely managed to reopen and remain open throughout the winter, with low levels of COVID-19 cases.

Either the scientists overestimated the share of the population that had gained immunity from the original outbreak, or the new Brazilian variant is burning through people who have recovered from common COVID. Best case for us: we may need booster vaccines several times a year as new strains appear here or abroad and begin to spread among the population, including people who have had the disease before. (Moderna is already developing a booster for the South African version and Pfizer is “laying the groundwork” to do so if their current vaccine ends up fighting that strain.) Worst case scenario: a super-contagious strain appears and begins to it breaks America at lightning speed, as pharmaceuticals struggle to develop a booster and distribute it, leaving us back in first place on the herd’s immunity.

We may not need a “permanent” vaccine infrastructure to do this, but a short-term mobilization, after which everything is normal again in September, seems more and more like a wish. of desire.

In fact, the Times reports today that the highly contagious British strain of the virus could evolve to resist current vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna recently reported that they consider their products to be just as effective against the current British version as they are against the common COVID. But what about the “new” British version?

Scientists suspect that B.1.351 [South African] the partial escape of the vaccine variant is largely due to a single mutation, called E484K. Experiments indicate that the E484K mutation makes it more difficult to catch virus antibodies and prevents them from entering cells.

It now appears that some B.1.1.7 coronaviruses in the UK also have the E484K mutation…

[I]A report published online on Tuesday by Rajiv Gupta, a virologist at Cambridge University, and colleagues reported an experiment they did to address exactly this question. They combined the E484K mutation with other key mutations found in version B.1.1.7, the one originally found in the UK. The addition of the E484K mutation made it difficult for antibodies to block viruses. The researchers wrote that “they noticed a significant loss of neutralization activity.”

If you liked British Super Crown, you will love British Super Crown. Do you see now why Fauci and the CDC tried to encourage people to disguise themselves twice? Not because Fauci is a killer who won’t rest until we all go in moon suits. This is because foreign strains are already circulating here and it seems unlikely that we will receive a significant number of vaccinated people before doing a lot of damage. If the super-corona spreads more easily than the corona, the obvious thing to do is add extra airway filtration to try not to inhale.

I will leave you with a hopeful note from former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb, who believes that SARS-CoV-2 is moving slowly enough that we can stay ahead of it with an aggressive vaccination regimen. Importantly, he notes, although South African and Brazilian strains appear capable of reinforcing humans, the jury still knows if they are more contagious than regular COVID. The British variant seems to have that advantage in that it has quickly become the dominant strain in the UK, but the other ominous strains may not spread as quickly. They are a little harder to cope with regular antibodies. Outcome Question: Why will it take the FDA’s “weeks” to decide if Moderna can fill its vaccine vials with 15 doses instead of 10, as it wants to do? This is a 50% increase in production instantly. And time is of the essence.

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