Republican lawmakers planning to run for president in 2024 have held urgent talks with advisers for weeks as they made the high stakes to support objections to congressional certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory this week.
Why it matters: Republican sources tell Axios that these lawmakers see Wednesday’s vote as potentially decisive for their political viability, as do future Democratic candidates fixated on the vote in the 2002 Iraq war.
What we hear: Sens. Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz bet that objecting will get them support from MAGA loyalists; Sens. Tom Cotton, Mike Lee and, to some extent, Vice President Mike Pence is concerned about the longer-term damage to American democracy. They hope that the GOP voters will appreciate their big ideas.
On the sidelines: Others hopeful for 2024, such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, have the luxury of sitting out this battle as they play no part in Wednesday’s joint congressional session.
A split screen of Lee and Cruz campaigning in Georgia over the weekend marked one division.
- Sources in attendance say Cruz spent much of his time describing his plan to object to the electoral college results – a distraction from the boost the Texan would give Republican candidates David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler .
- Lee, who announced today that he would not object, kept the focus on the candidates. The Utahan avoided all talks about voter fraud.
Cotton’s statement against the protest on Sunday reflected a different tack: pro-Trump dissent. The Arkansan and undisputed Trump supporter argues the short-sightedness of this move and trusts that the base will understand it.
- While Trump routinely slanders his opponents, Cotton is a veteran and hawk who has spent his entire tenure – until now – in the president’s corner.
- Cotton bets enough Republican voters recognize that a doomed challenge to election certification could backfire on the party.
- It’s a risky bet because he is takes heat from the president and his followers.
Pennies is in a harder place and he could set a third template for pro-Trump dissidents if he certifies Biden’s victory.
- Pence, who will chair Wednesday’s proceedings, has not said whether he will object to the results.
- A statement on Saturday from his chief of staff, Marc Short, merely claimed that the vice president “shares the concerns of millions of Americans about voter fraud and irregularities.”
- The comments were seen as more of a distraction while the pose is taking place.
It comes down to: Top Republicans are concerned that Georgia voters will not speak out for Perdue and Loeffler – despite being outraged at false claims that Biden “ stole ” the election – because they don’t trust the integrity of the election.