Joe Biden is in the role. Its rating of approval is higher than its predecessor has ever been. Nearly three-quarters of Americans think they are doing a good job of managing the COVID pandemic. Sixty percent approve of its management of the economy.
So it’s time for him to start looking at what might be going wrong and turn his attention beyond our borders. It is no coincidence that the only area where Biden’s rating is delayed is on our southern border, where his efforts to fix the problems his predecessor exacerbated have hit problem after problem, all amplified by the science of desperate immigrants who Donald Trump is gone.
But this is not the only place where the world will come to beat and, as Biden’s predecessors know, the results are often problematic. Barack Obama was chosen to take us out of the wars of George W. Bush and in his first year he discovered how difficult this would be and ended up actually raising the level of our troops in Afghanistan (over the objections of his vice president). George Bush was doing well until September 11, 2001. Bill Clinton’s first external crisis took place in his first year in office with the Battle of Mogadishu and the famous Black Hawk Down incident. George HW Bush’s first year in office saw both the Tiananmen Square uprising and massacre and a wave of revolutions in the collapsing satellite states of the Soviet Union that transformed the geopolitical landscape.
Today is a very different world, but two unfolding situations involving Russia and China, still America’s most significant international rivals, point to the challenges for Biden. Russia has increased the deployment of troops and military resources in the Crimean peninsula and along the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent weeks. China has also increased its aggressive stance on Taiwan and the south and east of the China Sea, which is of deep concern to military leaders in Asia and the United States.
Although no Russian invasion of Ukraine and no Chinese attack on Taiwan are considered the most likely short-term consequence of their noise, it does not make these situations less risky. In both cases, this is because the stakes for the US, our interests and allies are very high and our effective options are limited. It should also be emphasized that in both cases the possibility of military action by our opponents is not zero.
In Ukraine, numerous recent diplomatic talks involving, in various combinations, Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, French and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have been unproductive. Surprisingly, the Russians said that their actions “should not concern anyone at all. Russia is not a threat to any country in the world. “Also, surprisingly, given their experience, their words were greeted with distrust. The Ukrainian army is on alert. The nerves are torn.
With regard to Taiwan and the disputed territory of the South and East China Seas, fears are based on years of gradual acceleration of Chinese capacity building. The Chinese navy has been expanded. Deployments and flights over and in the disputed areas have increased. Chinese rhetoric has ranged from apologetic to downright confrontational. Last month, the region’s top US commander said in a Senate meeting that he expected the threat against Taiwan to end in the next six years. But the serious problems seem certain earlier. Just a few days ago, China announced that the exercises of its group of carriers near Taiwan will become regular events and the US responded with a visit by Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group to the area for the second time this year.
If Russia were to try to expand its control in Ukraine or China to intentionally or otherwise trigger a conflict around Taiwan or some disputed islands in the waters it claims, the consequences would be a major crisis.
The Biden administration has been actively involved on both fronts. The president spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a few days ago. A few days earlier, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart and said that the United States had supported Ukraine “in the face of Russia’s continued aggression.” During a recent trip to Asia, the secretary of state said the US would not support Chinese “coercion and aggression” and raised Chinese torment when referring to Taiwan as a country. In bilateral meetings, the United States highlighted these points. Recently, this week, the United States expressed its solidarity with the Philippines, in opposition to the provocative violation of Chinese ships in Philippine waters.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are testing the Biden administration, at least to some extent, to see how they will respond to those threats. So far, they have seen definite clarity and toughness. But the reality is that whatever our stated statements and policies, it is unlikely that the US will go directly into military action to defend Ukraine or Taiwan. The potential risk of rapid escalation, major losses and global conflicts is too great.
This means that the Biden team must lead these crises before they reach that point. They must create a united front with allies to show that the negative repercussions for aggression would be great and that the US will not be isolated. They need to clarify that there are red lines outside real aggression that will trigger heavy sanctions. They must emphasize that they will provide active support to strengthen the defense of all our allies in the region. They must increase military training in a way that conveys a clear message. And, above all, it must find diplomatic means to defuse these tensions.
If they do not reach any of these fronts, even without war, these conflicts could escalate into major distractions, create tension with the Allies, and / or produce an appearance of weakness or inefficiency at home. So far, Biden and his team have made the right moves. They distinguished themselves especially from Trump by embracing both multilateralism and diplomacy, and at the same time surprised some with the clarity and strength of their responses to the Chinese and Russians.
But when it comes to foreign policy, the problem is that the US does not have all the books. An oversized Putin trying to build support can act on his familiar trick of seeking victory in Russia abroad. Naval and air meetings in the Chinatown can easily cause accidental collisions and escalation accordingly. China has also been more brutal in Hong Kong and its northwest recently, suggesting it is not heavily influenced by global public opinion.
These are not the only potential international risks that could make life complicated for President Biden. North Korea remains a risk. Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high. The likelihood of failure in Afghanistan as we withdraw our presence is also high. In addition, the COVID pandemic is raging around the world, which could lead to recession, vaccine strains, humanitarian crises and more.
History and current reality work together to provide a compelling reminder, therefore, that if Joe Biden wants to build on his successes so far or keep his momentum on his internal agenda, he will have to be alert to the kind of imminent dangers. from all over the world that broke even the most capable of his predecessors.