What are the implications of the LeBron James ankle injury for defending the Los Angeles Lakers title and their hopes of winning a fifth MVP?
After trying to overcome the injury suffered in the second quarter of Saturday’s loss to the Atlanta Hawks, LeBron withdrew from the game and was later diagnosed with an ankle sprain in the upper part following an MRI. Although there is no specific timeline for James’ return, an ankle sprain is often a multi-week injury.
Can the Lakers, who are already playing without their star teammate Anthony Davis because of a calf stalk and Achilles tendinosis in his right leg, consolidate his list before Thursday’s deadline? And how will LeBron’s absence affect the MVP race? Let’s answer the key questions after James’ injury.
How long could LeBron be away?
Without more details on the severity of James’ ankle sprain, it’s difficult to determine exactly how long he could be out. When Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com wrote about the history of injuries during the 2018 NBA Finals, he noticed that the typical sprained ankle caused players to miss 10 games. However, the player he wrote about, Golden State Warriors All-Star Klay Thompson, did not miss a game, playing after two days off between suffering an injury in Game 1 and Game 3 thereafter.
LeBron’s initial attempt to stay on the field after injury (he even made a triple on his next possession) recalled his strong history of playing with more frequent sprained ankles, involving a different set of ligaments. As Stotts noted on Twitter on Saturday, his database showed that James missed just three games in total, with eight previous sprained ankles.
In this case, there are reasons why the Lakers should be more cautious about LeBron’s health, certainly compared to Thompson’s desire to return quickly during the NBA Finals. Where the Lakers finish in the Western Conference standings is less important than having healthy stars for the postseason.
How far could the Lakers fall in the standings?
Saturday’s loss, which earned the Lakers a four-game winning streak at the All-Star break, tied them with the Phoenix Suns for second place in the West, 2.5 games behind NBA leader Utah. Jazz. (Phoenix is technically advanced due to the fact that it has a better winning percentage with less victory and less loss.)
Following two games behind are the LA Clippers, who have lost five of their last seven games. And the Lakers are just 2.5 games ahead of the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers, currently tied for fifth in the West. So if James misses the next two weeks, while Davis stays out of the squad, doesn’t expect to be re-evaluated until the end of next week and should improve his conditioning before returning to action, it’s very the Lakers may be alone. from the first four of the conference at that time.
The remaining Lakers competed hard in defense on Saturday, making a run in the fourth quarter after overcoming 22-12 in the third period, but could not find enough offense to come back from an initial four-point deficit when LeBron left the land. . Although the Lakers have prepared for this scenario to some extent by adding Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder out of last season to make them somewhat less dependent on Davis and James for scores, they can do much to replace two of those best players in the league. league.
Over the next two weeks, the Lakers alternate between low-win games and difficult matches. They will travel to face the Phoenix Suns and face two of the best teams in the East (Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks) during a four-game home stay. Sprinkled with more favorable matches in New Orleans and at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, who are heading for the lottery.
The Lakers would certainly love to have at least one of their stars back for a “away game” at the Staples Center against the Clippers on April 4, two weeks after Sunday, which could prove significant in terms of regarding the ranking. Western playoffs. However, I don’t think terrible scenarios, such as the Lakers in the top six, are realistic unless the stars lose much more than expected. Prior to LeBron’s injury, FiveThirtyEight screenings gave the Lakers a six-game cushion over the Blazers and Dallas Mavericks, tied for the sixth-best projection in the West, averaging 40 wins.
Possible help with the deadline?
The Lakers’ efforts to add to their list through a transaction are complicated by the fact that they are subject to a strict ceiling on the luxury tax platform because they used the exception of the average non-taxpayer to sign Harrell as a free agent. Lakers can add up to $ 1.9 million in salary at most in a transaction and must weigh in by doing so against the possibility of using that money to enter free agents in the procurement market.
It is possible that the Lakers will recover a higher salary by including their current players in a transaction. For example, a package from Wesley Matthews ($ 3.6 million) and Alfonzo McKinnie ($ 1.8 million) would allow the Lakers to bring back a player who earns about $ 6 million after considering the need to score two players. list. (The Lakers currently have two open spots on the roster after the expiration of the second 10-day contract for Damian Jones, which began for them at center.)
The other complication for the Lakers is that they don’t have much to offer in a transaction. The only first-round pick the Lakers can negotiate is in 2027, and the nearest second-round pick is in 2023. Actually, the Lakers probably don’t have the ability to add the type of player that would really help them. to manage the absence. by Davis and James. The Lakers’ seasonal additions are more likely to come through acquisitions.
MVP career affected by injuries
At the All-Star break, LeBron and Joel Embiid were the two favorites to win the NBA Most Valuable Player Award, one that James made no secret of wanting to claim for the first time since 2012-13. Now, both players are injured as Embiid faces a bruised bone on his left knee.
The impact of injuries is a key reason why it is dangerous to start drawing MVP conclusions too early in the season. Field condition is an essential part of value in a regular individual season. Historically, 10 games lost were a threshold for MVP consideration. The last player who missed more than 10 games in an MVP season was Allen Iverson in 2000-01 (11). Before that, you have to go back to Bill Walton in 1977-78 (an unprecedented 34) for the example above. (No MVP between Walton and Iverson has missed more than seven games.)
At the same time, the importance of games played as MVP criteria could fade a bit, as teams put more emphasis on putting the stars to rest for the playoffs. In the first 10 years of the 2000s, the average MVP played 96% of his team’s games. In the last five seasons, it has dropped to 92%, each of the last three (James Harden in 2017-18 and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the last two seasons) missing the equivalent of 10 games.
In any case, there is no doubt that James and Embiid suffering injuries help the auction MVP of Nikola Jokic, the other top competitor based on advanced statistics. And it continues to open the door to the last two winners, Antetokounmpo and Harden, whose chances were ruled out at the start of the season. More importantly, the injuries remind us that we should not rush to choose an MVP before the season is almost over.