How close are we to the herd’s immunity? The data is clear enough

More than half of Texans have recovered from coronavirus or been fully vaccinated since Monday, according to state data.

When about 75% of us have immunity, we will have reached what is sometimes called “herd immunity”, when the virus can be difficult to spread even in the absence of safety measures, such as physical distance and masks.

Herd immunity is a “number calculated based on the infectivity of a virus,” said Dr. Paul Klotman, president of Baylor College of Medicine.

For example, the immunity of the herd to the highly contagious measles virus is 95%. For ordinary COVID-19, it is closer to 65%.

More infectious variants make the herd’s true immunity to this pandemic about 75 percent, Klotman said.

“I think we’re getting closer,” he added, pointing to local data.

More than half a million people in the nine counties area of ​​Greater Houston have officially contracted COVID-19 since Monday.

The true number is closer to 2.4 million, based on numerous “prevalence” studies, including a CDC study, which shows that for every positive COVID-19, there are several more unaccounted for.

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About 1.5 million people in the region have been completely vaccinated. Together, there are about 3.8 million of the 7.2 million people living in Greater Houston, or about 52%.

“There will be some overlapping” numbers, Klotman said.

The data are approximate, but also reflect the status data.

Of Texas’ 29 million, nearly six million have been completely vaccinated since Monday and about 11 million have contracted the virus (officially, 2.5 million tested positive).

That is almost 17 million Texans with immunity or about 57%. When we reach about 22 million recovered or vaccinated, we will have reached the “immunity of the flock”.

The number of Texans vaccinated each week is growing rapidly, and Dr. Klotman said we are on track to reach that high level of immunity by the end of June.

“We’re getting there,” Dr. Klotman said. – About two months.

When asked by Fox News on Sunday if he believes Texas has achieved herd immunity, Gov. Greg Abbott said:

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“When you look at the elderly population, for example, more than 70% of seniors have received the vaccine. More than 50% of those aged 50-65 have received the vaccine. ”

“I do not know what the immunity of the staff is,” the governor added. “But when you add this to people who have acquired immunity, it looks like you could be very close to the herd’s immunity.”