US President-elect Joe Biden will deliver comments on the Electoral College’s certification at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware on December 14, 2020.
Roberto Schmidt | AFP | Getty Images
GUANGZHOU, China – President-elect Joe Biden is unlikely to reverse President Donald Trump’s challenge to China’s technology industry and businesses, but Biden will likely be more focused in his approach and working with allies, experts told CNBC.
During his presidency, Trump has sought to challenge the Chinese technology industry through sanctions, executive orders and other actions. Biden is likely to pursue such a policy.
“The bullet has left the room. Trump has completely disrupted the status quo that existed for decades between the US and China,” said Abishur Prakash, a geopolitical specialist at the Center for Innovating the Future (CIF), a Toronto-based consultancy. told CNBC by email.
Cooperation with allies
The approach to shut down the Chinese tech companies could continue under Biden’s chairmanship.
“I think the admin will still see technology as a major source of competition and will continue some of Trump’s approaches to cutting off the flow of critical technology to China, ” said Adam Segal, director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). .
“The difference is that the process will be more collaborative, with both the private sector and allies, and more focused on a more limited set of technologies,” he told CNBC in an email.
The preference of a Biden team will likely be to master fewer technologies, but to build high walls around the technologies deemed necessary to protect for reasons of national security.
Paul Triolo, head of geotechnology practice at risk consulting Eurasia Group, agreed that the Biden government will work with allies on its strategy regarding Chinese technology.
Triolo told CNBC that Biden’s team “will clarify what needs to be monitored in emerging and fundamental technologies.” Some of these areas will include artificial intelligence and so-called quantum computing, the next generation of computers that use quantum physics to solve problems that existing computers take years to solve.
“Here, the preference of a Biden team is likely to be to master fewer technologies, but to put high walls around the technologies deemed necessary to protect for reasons of national security,” Triolo said in an email. “Also, I would expect that the definition of what technologies are essential to control for national security reasons will be much clearer under a Biden administration than it was during the Trump years.”
Prakash says Biden will likely continue Trump’s drive to exclude Chinese vendors from the next generation of 5G cellular networks around the world. The Trump administration has pushed allies to remove Huawei from its networks. Australia, Japan and the UK have done so effectively.
The geopolitical specialist said Biden can also “recalibrate” in areas such as the blacklist of Chinese companies or certain export controls, while also looking for innovation in terms of his approach to other areas, such as mergers and acquisitions data rules.
One thing is certain: the technical battle between the US and China will continue under Biden’s presidency.
“The US doesn’t have too many options. Either it allows China to dominate the world through technology or it challenges it,” said Prakash.