Implementing a nationwide mask warrant, combined with complementary public health measures, could reduce the spread of coronavirus to zero and have a potential impact of $ 1 trillion on U.S. GDP, according to UCLA Fielding School researchers of Public Health.
The team’s research “clearly shows that even as vaccines are developed and new variants are discovered, such as B.1.7.7, the power to protect us remains in our hands, as individuals,” said co-author Anne Rimoin. UCLA Fielding School Professor of Epidemiology.
“Wearing a mask is one of the simplest, most effective and cheapest ways to do just that – and it has been proven by the history of epidemiology in the last century, starting with the 1918-19 flu pandemic and beyond.” she said.
“Reducing the spread of the disease requires two things: limiting the contact of infected individuals through physical distance and other measures and reducing the likelihood of transmission per contact,” said co-author Christina Ramirez, a biostatistics professor at Fielding School. “The preponderance of evidence indicates that wearing a mask reduces contact transmissibility by reducing the transmission of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical settings. “
The findings – published in the January issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed journal – were the work of an international team of 19 UCLA specialists and more than a dozen other universities and research centers, including the University Oxford, University of Cape Town, Peking University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of San Francisco.
Three other cases of COVID-19 were San Diego County. Annette Arreola reports January 1, 2021.
R0, pronounced “R naught”, is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It is also called the reproduction number. Because an infection is transmitted to new people, it reproduces on its own. Reducing reproduction to zero, in turn, could add $ 1 trillion to US GDP, the authors said.
“When used in conjunction with large-scale testing, contact tracking, quarantining anyone who may be infected, hand washing and physical distancing, face masks are an invaluable tool to reduce community transmission,” Rimoin said. “All these measures, through their effect on R0, has the potential to reduce the number of infections. As governments emerge from bottlenecks, maintaining transmissions low enough to maintain health care capacity will be essential until vaccines can be developed and delivered on a large scale. “
To reach their conclusions, the team examined a wide range of new and existing studies and research, including work dating back to a 1910 plague outbreak in northeast China. Even then, according to researchers, scientists fighting the plague recognized that the cloth mask was “the main means of personal protection.”
There is also ample evidence of the current pandemic, said study co-author Jeremy Howard, a researcher at the University of San Francisco.
“By the end of June 2020, almost 90% of the global population lived in regions that used almost universal masks or had laws requiring the use of masks in some public places, and the use of community masks was recommended by almost all major public health bodies.” This was a radical change from the early days of the pandemic, when masks were rarely recommended or used, “Howard said.
The researchers came to a variety of conclusions, including:
- Facial masks were 79% effective in preventing transmission if used by all members of the household before the onset of symptoms.
- The use of masks was strongly protective, with a 70% risk reduction for those who always wore a mask at the exit.
- Transmission was 7.5 times higher in countries that did not have a mask mandate.
- The difference between US and non-masked states found that the daily growth rate was 2 percentage points lower in states with masked mandates, estimating that the mandates prevented 230.00 to 450,000 COVID-19 cases by May 22.
- Facial masks have a major reduction effect on infections and deaths, with a potential impact on US GDP of $ 1 trillion if a national mandate were implemented.
- The marginal benefit on a cloth mask is between $ 3,000 and $ 6,000.