Credit: Maryland National Guard via Flickr
A more contagious variant of the coronavirus is likely to spread widely in Minnesota, according to members of the Minnesota Department of Health.
Variant B.1.1.7, first discovered in the United Kingdom, has now been confirmed by genome sequencing in nearly 500 Minnesota people who tested positive for COVID-19 and is probably just a small piece of the puzzle.
“We have now identified 479 cases of this variant. We estimated that 50-65% of the Covid-positive specimens tested on 16-20 March were B.1.1.7. This is an increase compared to the specimens tested on 10-15 March in which 38-44% of these specimens were estimated to be B.1.1.7, “Dr. Ruth Lynfield, a state epidemiologist, said during a news call Tuesday.
Lynfield said there is likely to be a “large-scale transmission” of B.1.1.7 in Minnesota, adding that B.1.1.7 “already dominates.”
“We do not identify all cases of B117, however of those we have identified, approximately 5% have been hospitalized. We will monitor this closely as we expand our sequencing efforts and are able to identify more cases,” said Lynfield.
The news about winning a fortress in the state comes at a time when Minnesota is making significant progress on the vaccine front. About 25% of Minnesota received at least one dose of vaccine, while about 15% of the state’s 5.6 million population completed the series of vaccines.
Lynfield described the current situation as a “race” between vaccination and the spread of B.1.1.7, which he said had a “higher attack rate”, meaning it could infect more people than SARS-CoV-2. (the coronavirus that started the pandemic).
“Most Minnesota people are not yet fully vaccinated. That means we have millions of Minnesota people susceptible to COVID-19 infection and the health impact associated with it,” Lynfield said.
“A more infectious virus widespread among millions of sensitive Minnesota residents – some who may be tempted to relax social distancing, masking and other precautions – may contribute to fueling a third increase in Covid cases and an increase hospitalization and death. “
The good news is that the vaccine has so far been very effective. Of the nearly 850,000 Minnesota patients who completed the vaccine series, only 89 tested positive for COVID-19 more than two weeks after receiving the second shot.
None of the 89 patients who tested positive after completing the series of vaccines died. Vaccines are about 95% effective, so it is entirely possible that about five out of 100 people who are fully vaccinated are still susceptible.