Groundhog Day: more winter or early spring?

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Legend has it that if groundhog Punxsutawney Phil sees his shade, we’ll have six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring will come early.

Right now, the outlook for Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, is for snow. Much of that. Tuesday morning’s weather forecast, as Phil makes his prediction, calls for snow showers and temperatures in the mid-20s. Winds will hit 25 mph, bringing chills in the low to mid teens.

Even if it doesn’t snow very hard during Phil’s televised prediction, there will be at least 10-15cm of fresh powder on the ground from a weekend winter storm that will sweep through the Northeast from Sunday to Tuesday.

The party, which is over a century old, looks a little different this year. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, there is no audience or guests, but you can watch the ceremony via live streaming on the internet.

Predictions in the past

Phil is not new to the prediction game. The ceremony has been going on since 1887.

Scientifically speaking, winter will officially end on the equinox on March 20, regardless of what Phil predicts. But Mother Nature doesn’t always follow the timetable.

In fact, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota actually have their snowiest time of year after Groundhog Day.

For the past two years in a row, Phil hasn’t seen his shadow, predicting an early spring.

In the past Phil has seen his shadow a lot more times than not. He has reportedly seen his shadow 104 times, but not his shadow only 20 times. Statistically, Phil has been right about 50% of the time in his predictions over the past 10 years.

Phil has many friends

Phil is not alone in his prognostic skills. In fact, there are many others like him. States like Ohio, North Carolina, New York, Georgia, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Illinois, Maryland, West Virginia, and Michigan all have their own groundhog to use for forecasts.

Some of the more colorful names include Pierre C. Shadeaux of Louisiana, General Beauregard Lee of Georgia, and Staten Island Chuck of New York to name a few.

There’s also Nebraska-based Unadilla Bill, which has one of the highest accuracy ratings in the groundhog industry.

This means that if you don’t like Phil’s prediction, chances are one of the other groundhogs will predict something from you To do Like it.

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