Global use of fossil fuels is accelerating and will worsen further

LONDON – Global dependence on fossil fuels is likely to worsen in the coming decades, exacerbating the risk of a climate catastrophe, as world leaders and CEOs reiterate their commitment to the so-called “energy transition”.

Political decision-makers are under increasing pressure to deliver on the promises made in the Paris Agreement before this year’s COP26, which is due to take place in Glasgow, Scotland in early November.

However, even if politicians and business leaders publicly acknowledge the need for the transition to a low-carbon society, hopes of limiting global warming – and achieving a crucial global goal – are rapidly deteriorating.

Nearly 200 countries have ratified the Paris climate agreement at COP21, agreeing to continue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It remains a key goal before COP26, although some climate scientists now believe that achieving this goal is already “virtually impossible”.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that man-made warming as a result of past and ongoing emissions adds about 0.2 degrees Celsius to global average temperatures each decade. And, if this continues, the IPCC has predicted that warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2030 and 2052.

To keep it below that, climate scientists have called for a 45% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, before reaching a net zero around 2050.

“It is absolutely the case that the transition is moving too slowly from a climate perspective, but what is important to recognize is that it is primarily a matter of political will and economic choice,” said Carroll Muffett, executive director at the Center for Nonprofit Law. international media, CNBC said by telephone.

“It’s not about the lack of technology or the inability to do it. If you’re actually looking at what the cheapest sources of energy supply are right now, it’s not really a matter of economy. It’s much more about the built-in power structures. and the continued support of the dying industry, “he added.

One of the “best examples” of this disconnection, Muffett said, is that the strategies of zero networks of governments and companies depend on increasing fossil fuel consumption “for decades to come.” These policies “are usually based on unproven and potentially very dangerous carbon sequestration strategies to make carbon dioxide magically disappear”.

“We see this in the US, especially in the context of the massive investments proposed in carbon capture and storage,” Muffett added.

Today, the Earth’s carbon dioxide levels are higher than at any time in the last 3.6 million years, according to research by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The findings, published last week, found that levels of CO2 and methane – the two most important greenhouse gases – continued their “steady rise” last year, despite a strong economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

“Human activity is driving climate change,” said Colm Sweeney of NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory. “If we want to mitigate the worst effects, it will deliberately focus on reducing fossil fuel emissions to almost zero – and even then we will have to look for ways to further eliminate greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.”

Combustion of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal releases large amounts of carbon dioxide into the air. Greenhouse gases trap heat from our atmosphere, causing global warming. The IPCC found that emissions from fossil fuels and industry are the dominant cause of global warming, accounting for 89% of global CO2 emissions in 2018.

The US Energy Information Administration said it expects global carbon dioxide emissions from energy-related sources to continue to rise in the coming decades.

In 2019, the EIA has projected that global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 0.6% per year between 2018 and 2050, with China maintaining its position as the world’s largest energy-related CO2 emitter during this year. periods.

Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at IEEFA, a non-profit organization, described the so-called “energy transition” as “the process of moving an energy system from the 19th century to the 21st.”

“Is there an ongoing transition, but is it fast enough to prevent the worst ravages of climate change? Is it fast enough to alleviate air quality problems in cities in the developing world?” Williams-Derry said, citing dangerous levels of air pollution in countries such as India, China, Bangladesh and Vietnam, among others.

“We are anchored by a legacy of local elections, technologies and economies that want to hold us back,” he continued. – It will be a rough walk.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has acknowledged that the transition from fossil fuels is a huge undertaking and will require “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes” in all aspects of society. It also emphasizes the idea that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius “could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society”, with clear benefits for both humans and natural ecosystems.

However, a United Nations analysis published on February 26 found that commitments made by countries around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were “very far” from the profound measures needed to avoid the most devastating effects. of climate breakdown.

The latest UN bulletin on national climate action plans – sometimes referred to as nationally determined contributions – included countries responsible for only about a third of global emissions. This is because only 75 of the 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement have submitted their NDCs for reducing emissions by 2030 in time to be assessed.

The US, China and India, some of the largest issuers in the world, have not yet formulated their respective NDCs.

In response, UN Executive Secretary for Climate Change Patricia Espinosa urged policymakers to “step up” their ambitious plans to reduce emissions this year. “If this task was urgent before, it is crucial now.”