Members of the German Green Party, including co-leader Annalena Baerbock (C) and local candidate Katharina Fegebank (CL), are reacting to initial exit polls giving the Greens 25.5% of the vote in the February 23, 2020 Hamburg elections in Hamburg. Germany.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Germany’s political establishment has been in a state of flux since Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in 2018 that she would not run for a fifth term.
Since then, amid constant speculation about who will be Germany’s next leader, new political trends have emerged in Europe’s largest and most influential economy.
The Green Party, for example, has grown in popularity among middle-class liberal voters, benefiting from a shift in voters away from the political current and a more environmentally conscious electorate.
Recent polls and several state elections show that support for the Greens has increased to such an extent that it could become instrumental in forming the next government after the September national elections.
Four polls conducted in mid-April in Germany supported the party by 20-22%, making the Green Party the second most popular party after Angela Merkel’s CDU / CSU alliance.
This center-right political group, made up of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and her Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, has been dominant in German politics for years. But support for the alliance came to around 28-31% in the same polls this month.
Germany’s political direction could become clearer this week as the Greens and the CDU / CSU announce what candidates they will present to run for chancellor. On Monday, the Green Party confirmed that Annalena Baerbock will be its candidate for the next German chancellor.
Jürgen Trittin, a member of the Bundestag and former leader of the German Green Party, told CNBC that Baerbock’s candidacy is a “historic decision” and a new chapter for the party.
“Now, for the first time, this (electoral) race is taking place between the Green Party on one side and the Conservatives on the right,” he said. Trittin said he believed that Baerbock would be largely supported by the entire party.
The CDU / CSU is also expected to announce this week who will vote in the September 26 vote, but it is unclear whether CDU leader Armin Laschet and CSU leader Markus Söder will lead the Conservatives to the next election.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist of the Berenberg Bank, on Monday presented the chance that the CDU / CSU would lead the next German government to 65%, with the Greens as a junior partner (a 95% probability).
However, Schmieding also said that there is a 35% chance that the Greens will form a government without a CDU / CSU. Instead, it could form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD, currently a junior coalition partner with CDU / CSU) and either with the Liberal FDP or with the Left Party as the third partner.
“Only a ‘green-red-red’ coalition between the Greens, the SPD and the left-wing party would announce a major shift in German policies, especially towards stricter labor, housing and product market regulations that would reduce the growth trend. German Schmieding noted Monday.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s macro strategy team said in a note Monday that “it is no longer unlikely that the next German chancellor will be able to come from the Greens after the September federal elections.” However, the bank still sees a CDU / CSU-Green coalition as the baseline, as it expects the Conservative alliance to regain momentum.
Speaking to CNBC on Monday, Berenberg’s Schmieding said a power vacuum caused by Merkel’s departure is expected.
“When an older leader leaves and Angela Merkel will not run again, there is a bit of a vacuum and it is fair to see some of them, to some extent, at European level and to a more significant extent. “At German level,” he told CNBC Squawk Box Europe.