A health worker is caring for a Covid-19 patient in the intensive care unit at Robert Bosch Hospital in Stuttgart, Germany, on Tuesday, January 12, 2021.
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It’s no secret that Germany has seen a sharp rise in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, but a health expert in the country is now warning of an “exponential increase” in the number of infections.
This comes at a time when the country has suspended the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University coronavirus vaccine.
Epidemiologist Dirk Brockmann, an expert at the Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases, said a recent loosening of Covid restrictions has allowed a more virulent variant of the virus, first discovered in the UK late last year, to spread rapidly.
“We are exactly on the side of the third wave. This can no longer be disputed. And at this point, we have eased the restrictions and that is accelerating exponential growth,” Brockmann told German broadcaster ARD.
“It was totally irrational to relax here. It just fuels this exponential growth,” he said.
Germany has been praised for its initial response to the pandemic, managing to keep cases smaller through an effective tracking and tracing regime and maintaining a lower mortality rate due to its modern hospital infrastructure.
But in recent months, in the winter and faced with new, more virulent variants of the virus, it seems to be struggling to contain infections. The slow launch of vaccines in the EU has not helped, as the bloc has been criticized for slower purchasing and use of vaccines. The launch of vaccination in Germany has faced several obstacles, frustrating health officials and experts in the country.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and state leaders agreed earlier this month to step down restrictions, along with an “emergency brake” that would allow authorities to reverse the course if the number of infections rises to more than 100 to 100,000 in three days. consecutive.
The emergency brake, the government said, was provided “if we experience an exponential increase” in cases. Merkel and regional leaders are expected to review the measures on March 22, where they will decide whether to move to the next reopening step or not.
The number of cases per 100,000 reported on Tuesday was 83.7, up from 68 a week ago, and RKI said the metric could reach 200 by mid-next month, Reuters reported in a report on Tuesday.
The closure of Germany is set to take place at least until March 28, but some restrictions have already been eased, with schools, childcare and hairdressers reopening earlier this month.
Then bookstores and florists were allowed to reopen some museums a week ago. However, regional rules may vary, with states being given discretion as to how and when certain case rates reopen.
On March 22, Germany’s five-point reopening plan called for some outdoor dining venues, theaters and cinemas to be reopened. The growing number of infections could derail this schedule.
Vaccine suspension
The top epidemiologist’s comments come as Germany and a handful of other European countries have decided to suspend the use of the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, worried about reports of blood clots in a handful of people vaccinated.
The measure has baffled experts around the world, however, with the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency (both conducting a vaccine safety review), both insisting that all available evidence shows that the vaccine is safe and effective and does not require a higher risk. blood clots, which are common in the general population.
The vaccine manufacturer itself pointed out that the data show that the number of blood clots in the vaccinated population was in fact lower than what might have been expected to occur naturally.
The WHO and the EMA, which is due to publish the findings of its safety analysis on Thursday, say the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks and that countries should not discontinue their immunization programs. However, more than a dozen European countries have suspended their use. This could lead to a dangerous increase in infections and deaths, experts say.
“The latest figures suggest 40 fatal cases for every 20 million Astra-Zeneca jab vaccines. Each case taken individually is always terrible, but this, as a percentage, is statistically insignificant. Instead, vaccination delays it cost Europe about 2,000 extra deaths a day, and tens of billions of euros in blockages, closed deals, “Guido Cozzi, a professor of macroeconomics at St. Paul’s University, said on Tuesday. Gallen.
Although public health bodies such as the WHO and the EMA reiterate on Thursday that the vaccine is safe, experts fear that more damage has already been done to the vaccine’s reputation.
The AstraZeneca vaccine has already faced a number of obstacles, ranging from questioning the study methodology and data, hesitation over the effectiveness of the vaccine over the age of 65 and disputes over delays in supplying the EU. Real-world data show that the vaccine is extremely effective in preventing severe cases of Covid, hospitalizations and adult deaths.