Photographer: Benjamin Girette / Bloomberg
Photographer: Benjamin Girette / Bloomberg
The French government is delaying an agonizing decision to blockade the country once again, considering options to slow down the new variants of Covid-19, as the current curfew is considered insufficient.
President Emmanuel Macron “called for further analysis” of the spread of the virus before deciding on new restrictions, government spokesman Gabriel Attal said after a meeting of the defense cabinet on Wednesday. Maintaining the status quo is “unlikely”, as the national meeting from 18:00 to 06:00 is not enough, and a strict option is being considered, he said.
Macron is under pressure to shut down the economy for the third time in less than a year, as doctors and researchers sound the alarm about coronavirus mutations spreading across the country.
However, with a presidential race next year, the French leader must also look at criticism of crisis management, including a slow start to the vaccination campaign. And while cases and deaths in the UK demonstrate the dangers of new variants of the virus, riots in the Netherlands against government extinction show the risks of stricter measures.
Risk of anxiety
Christophe Castaner, the leader of the Macron party in the National Assembly, told Le Parisien that there was also a risk of “civil disobedience” in France if a new blockade was imposed.
Voters have much less appetite for strict measures now than at the start of the pandemic, with 93% of adults approving the first blockade, compared with only 67% in favor of a third, according to a recent Elabe survey.
“I know there is fatigue,” Attal said during the news conference. A decision on tightening measures will depend on health indicators, he said.
France’s second blockade began in late October and ended in mid-December, with an extension that was extended earlier this month. It brought only partial relief to the health system, with hospitalizations and intensive care patients remaining more than five times larger than in August.
Economic contraction
Restaurants, cafes, clubs, theaters, cinemas and sports venues have been closed since October and are supported by government aid, as are many areas of the economy.
A third blockade would cause an economic contraction of 10% to 18% compared to pre-crisis levels, according to a study by the Ministry of Finance cited by Parisien, depending on the severity of the measures. During the first – and tightest blockade – in the spring of 2020, activity contracted by more than a third.
As the government seeks a strong recovery in its economy in the second half of the year, another stalemate would threaten its growth forecasts.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Wednesday called a third stalemate a “last resort”. A recent survey by the French statistics agency showed growing concern among households in January, as consumers plan to save more money in difficult times. Consumer sentiment is the lowest since November.
“Let’s look where we are,” Le Maire said. “Don’t hurry.”
The most contagious variant of the virus in the UK accounted for 9.4% of cases in an analysis of positive tests in the Paris region between 11 and 21 January. Across France, hospitalizations have risen to their highest level in early December since early December, and the number of patients with severely ill Covid in intensive care has risen to more than 3,000 this week.
Macron could make a final decision in the coming days – the defense cabinet, a small and close-knit group of ministers gathering around the president and prime minister, met last weekend.
– With the assistance of Helene Fouquet and William Horobin
(Add the assessment of the current curfew in the first paragraph, the economic impact of the lock in 10.)