France and Germany are taking the reins as Britain leaves the EU’s economic orbit

Instead, as Britain prepares to leave the EU’s economic orbit on January 1, the EU regained confidence, helped in part by a revived Franco-German partnership and encouraged by the Biden administration’s early arrival in Washington. Meanwhile, Paris, now the bloc’s dominant foreign policy player, is leading debates on all aspects, from relations with Washington and Moscow to expanding the EU’s military capabilities.

Last week’s Brexit deal is set to be approved by EU governments on Tuesday and the British parliament on Wednesday to allow it to enter into force provisionally on Friday. The European Parliament will consider the 1,246-page agreement, published in full on Saturday for the first time in the new year. Top European parliamentarians from the bloc’s largest parties have already welcomed the agreement.

During several years of fierce talks on Brexit, many feared that the failure of the EU and the UK to reach an agreement on their future relations could poison bilateral ties, threatening even the UK’s considerable contributions to security. European Union – from the Baltic states to counter-terrorism. campaign in the Sahel of Africa.

Britain’s balance sheet on the continent, a useful channel for Washington to influence EU plans on trade, fiscal and foreign policy priorities, is much diminished. However, Thursday’s agreement between the UK and the EU on future economic, trade and security ties should prevent a permanent rift between America’s European allies.

Britain’s repeated political crises in the referendum have shown, according to opinion polls, support elsewhere for EU membership. Many anti-EU populist champions are now calling for a review, rather than giving up the bloc.

This year, the EU agreed on a huge recovery fund to help the bloc emerge from its coronavirus crisis – an agreement unimaginable a few years ago. With a Brexit deal now in his pocket, some officials believe the EU has turned a corner.

“We have shown that if we are really under pressure, we will get things done,” Michael Clauss, Germany’s ambassador to the EU, said in December. “So we have risen to the challenges and that is why, psychologically, we all feel that we are in a stronger position now.”

The Franco-German partnership is key to reviving the eurozone, which gained strength with the exit from the only EU member state that was economically and strategically equal.

Just a year ago, France and Germany came into battle with many of Europe’s biggest challenges.

Germany has watered most of French President Emmanuel Macron’s comprehensive proposals to reform the eurozone, France has blocked EU enlargement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected Mr Macron’s criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while Berlin has been concerned about Paris’ efforts. to thaw ties with Russia.

That has changed this spring.

Eliminating a decade of opposition to the issuance of joint debt, Merkel backed in May a proposal for the European Commission, the EU executive, to issue debt to finance a rescue package that would deliver hundreds of billions of euros to member states to help them during the pandemic.

Two months later, the EU agreed on a EUR 750 billion program, equivalent to $ 920 billion.

If Britain had been still a member of the EU, the bloc could have taken Britain out of the fund. However, British parliamentarians have been asked to hand over new fiscal powers to the EU executive, which they would have been despised for doing.

With the exit of Britain, France, also a member of the nuclear power and vetoing the UN Security Council, is one of the few European countries with a global military presence and willing to deploy it.

Mr Macron has promoted a strategic autonomy program, which includes developing military capabilities to enable the EU to function independently of major powers such as China and the US. .

France has led a hard line in a growing conflict between the EU and Turkey over natural gas resources and Ankara’s military movements in its vicinity. Mr Macron continued his expansion in Moscow despite the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

There is caution about Mr Macron’s policies in some parts of the bloc, especially any measures that undermine NATO. However, without the UK, these concerns are ignored.

“As far as European defense is concerned, it comes out in a very French way,” said Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Center for European Reform. “Strategic autonomy would not have gone that far until the British were still at the table.”

For Washington, this could be challenging even if EU leaders say they are eager to work with President-elect Joe Biden. For years, Britain has blocked EU efforts it feared to undermine or double NATO activity. The UK has also become a much sharper critic of China and is likely to have pushed the EU towards closer coordination with the US on the challenges facing Beijing.

Instead, the EU establishes a middle ground. Brussels has recently begun a formal dialogue with the United States on China. However, the EU, pushed by Berlin, is now close to finalizing an extended investment agreement with Beijing, prompting warnings from Mr Biden’s team.

Reducing the EU’s renewed confidence are doubts about the strength and resilience of the revived Franco-German partnership.

Paris and Berlin still differ on eurozone reforms, a weakness that officials fear could leave them vulnerable to a new financial or banking crisis in the single currency area. The EU powers have failed to put an end to the bloc’s differences in migration policy or to cure a toxic rift between East and West over the application of the rule of law and democratic freedoms.

Next year, Mrs Merkel, who has been chancellor for a decade and a half, is due to retire. Some see a new period of uncertainty even as German diplomats insist that Berlin’s European policy will not change much.

“The underlying conflicts in the EU have not disappeared,” said Fabian Zuleeg, executive director of the European Policy Center in Brussels. “Just removing an actor … could mean there is less of a source of conflict. It does not mean that we are able to make leaps in integration. “

Write to Laurence Norman at [email protected]