For the UK and Boris Johnson, 2021 begins with a new Covid challenge

Mr Johnson faces a difficult – and politically precarious – balancing act as he and his advisers seek to weigh public health risks against economic pain while maintaining the support of pandemic-weary voters. The prime minister has faced criticism from both those who say it is too late and those who complain that it has gone too far with restrictions and severely damaged the economy.

In an attempt to establish a middle ground, Mr Johnson spent weeks pushing publicly against calls for stricter blocking measures backed by scientific advisers, before finally deciding to adopt them as a new and more contagious option. of the virus spread rapidly in the country and hospitals filled with the sick.

During his tenure on Downing Street, Mr. Johnson often waited until the last minute to make high-stakes decisions and used his political flair to sell them. This approach has resulted in the unification of his Conservative party on Brexit and in the conclusion of a new trade agreement with the European Union.

But critics say it has served him poorly in treating the virus, leading to unnecessary delays, longer disruptions and public confusion. The UK, which has seen more than 75,000 deaths due to Covid, is on the lowest road to mortality in Europe. It also suffered one of the largest contractions in economic production. The economy at the end of the third quarter was 8.6% lower than a year earlier, a larger decline in production than France, Germany or Italy.

Over the past year, Mr Johnson’s government has shifted from considering a relatively practical course to building the herd’s immunity to a number of interventions of varying severity. There have been other policy changes, from the dismissal of masks to their approval, from subsidizing restaurant meals to banning meals and increasing and decreasing the number of people allowed at social gatherings.

Government officials say the pandemic’s strategy has been refined as the understanding of the virus has improved. However, Mr Johnson has repeatedly said that blockades should be used easily and ultimately, emphasizing the human costs involved.

Johnson’s public approval of crisis management declined as policy changes mounted. Currently, 36% of Britons approve of the government’s management of the pandemic, down from 72% in the spring, according to the YouGov poll. However, it is clear that, in the short term, at least the British are strongly supportive of restrictions aimed at stopping the spread of the virus. A Savanta ComRes poll showed on Tuesday that 79% of Britons supported the blockade.

The next few months will be critical for the prime minister, said Robert Hayward, a Conservative member of the House of Lords and poll. The British government has bet heavily on vaccines, approving them – and aiming to develop them – faster than any other Western nation.

Johnson has pledged to vaccinate 13 million Britons most vulnerable to the virus by mid-February to pave the way for an end to pandemic restrictions. At the same time, the economic impact of the trade agreement it concluded with the EU last month will begin to be felt in the UK.

“Judgments will be made at that stage,” Mr Hayward said. “Then the mists will disappear.”

It will be difficult for Mr. Johnson to avoid blame for any shortcomings. Unlike the United States, within the UK’s centralized system of government, prime ministers are responsible for both the nationalized health system and the implementation of blockade rules across England.

A small but vocal libertarian group of Conservative MPs pushed for the removal of the restrictions. Partly in response to these, Mr Johnson sought to keep the economy as open as possible by avoiding the most draconian restrictions and making £ 22 billion, the equivalent of $ 30 billion, available to fund a testing and tracing system. which has thus performed poorly.

The payback for Mr Johnson is Brexit. During the 2019 elections, he acquired a new support base for Brexit with a blue collar, which has so far proved loyal. “I’m basically willing to stay with Johnson, regardless of how he handles specific issues,” said Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent. If they remain so, it will depend on how Mr Johnson manages to revive the country’s post-industrial areas after Covid and Brexit.

Today, the Conservatives remain at the level – or in some polls slightly ahead – of the opposition Labor Party. And Mr. Johnson can be a convincing politician.

“He’s an expert on charming audiences who might have been upset,” said Matthew Flinders, a professor at the University of Sheffield. “So, no, my sense is that he won’t get hit too hard.” And the next election is four years away.

However, the last few weeks have been particularly turbulent. The discovery of a new variant of the virus in the south of England, which scientists say is up to 70% more transmissible, combined with the weakening of government restrictions in some places at Christmas, has almost doubled infection rates in late December. Data released on Tuesday showed that one in 50 people in England had the virus in early January.

Mr Johnson introduced a three-tier system in October in an effort to halt the number of cases while limiting the economy. As cases continued to grow, he ordered a four-week closure in England on November 5.

According to an indicator that measures the strictness of public health measures developed by the University of Oxford, the November blockade was slightly less restrictive than the blockade imposed in the spring, during the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak. The gauge puts the severity of the November lock at 75 on a 100-point scale, compared to almost 80 in March and April.

Data from Apple Inc.

and Alphabet Inc.

The Google unit shows that the second blockage did not prevent people from traveling as much as the first, which could have accelerated the spread of the variant.

For example, in London and Kent, two places where the new variant caught on, shopping trips were about 80% to 90% below their pre-pandemic norm in April, according to Google data. In November, the number of such trips was about 60% to 70% lower.

Scientists at Imperial College London, in a study published online on December 31, said their research suggests that the blocking measures in place in November were enough to control older variants of coronavirus, but not the older version contagious.

Despite worrying trends over Christmas, warnings from scientific advisers and images of ambulances lining up outside hospitals, Mr Johnson Sunday, appeared in a chat show and claimed that primary school children would return to school on Monday.

On Monday, Johnson visited a hospital to celebrate the UK being the first country to launch the new vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC and Oxford University. He suggested that more restrictions would follow. That evening, the assistants were preparing their address to the nation: there was going to be a new blockade and the schools would close.

“The coming weeks will be the hardest yet, but I really think we are entering the final phase of the fight,” Mr Johnson said.