De Tal Axelrod
• New York City is heading for its high-stakes mayoral race, like a large number of Democrats and some Republican players before the June 22 mayors.
The final winner of the mayor’s race will take over a city in crisis, which is facing high levels of coronavirus infections, the economic consequences of the pandemic, fungal crimes and other problems.
The race has already gathered a number of candidates with a number of experiences who want to replace the mayor Bill de Blasio
Bill de BlasioCuomo faces increased control over deaths in nursing homes COVID-19 New York State warns hospitals to vaccinate staff before the elderly: reports that states fail in high technology and privacy – Biden must take over driving MORE (D), whose pandemic surveillance has been extended. He is barred from running for a third consecutive term.
Democratic candidates running for the November 2 general election include former presidential candidate Andrew Yang
Andrew YangYang meets donation requirements to raise city funds in New York mayor’s race Poll finds Yang with big advantage in New York mayor’s race Hill’s Morning report – Presented by Facebook – Democrats plot aid plan for aid plan COVID-19 by BIDEN MORE, Brooklyn President Eric Adams, City Controller Scott Stringer and Blasio’s former adviser Maya Wiley.
Here are five things to keep in mind as the race progresses.
How is the coronavirus
affecting the race?
The mayoral race looks like any other city in New York in recent history. Retail policy has long been at the heart of the campaign in the city’s five neighborhoods, with candidates often seen with voters outside shops, on street corners and at local events to support name recognition and support.
However, this was abruptly reduced during the coronavirus pandemic, a change that was highlighted when Yang announced earlier this month that he had tested positive for the virus and would cancel his personal activities.
“I can’t do what they’ve always done,” said Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf.
“New York is a place where people campaign, go on the subway, stand outside the bus lines, restaurants. It is a very outdoor environment where people are much more involved in a very personal way with the candidates. And part of the decision-making is to decide who is the mayor by watching who has the most physical pain, getting up early in the morning, entering at night at the latest and being seen at several stops. ”
The coronavirus could also have an impact on turnout, given the severity of the pandemic in the area.
Local elections in the city have historically been affected by low voter turnout, sometimes even at 20%.
But observers suggest that the severity of the pandemic, in addition to an extended period of early voting, could reject this political calculation.
“The hardest thing to do is for someone who doesn’t normally run in the local primary to start caring or believing that their vote matters, so I think that’s the biggest factor. Will COVID be serious enough to get a much larger group of New Yorkers to vote? Asked Kathryn Wylde, who leads the New York City Partnership.
How much change are the people at Blasio looking for?
De Blasio’s leadership of the city has been largely affected in recent years, and criticism has only increased during the coronavirus pandemic.
Its approval rating is below 50%, according to an October poll. A Democrat who ran in 2020 even used Blasio as a foil, going so far as to call him “the worst mayor in New York City’s history.”
“Public opinion data says that Bill de Blasio would be difficult to win even a significant part of the city’s electorate if he were allowed to run again,” Sheinkopf said.
Wylde said voters are primarily looking for a candidate who can propose the kind of clear plan to address the pandemic that de Blasio has struggled to articulate.
“Political statements simply do not solve problems and I think people have seen this in this very serious situation when we have a different solution every day, depending on the political winds of the moment,” she said.
Can Yang maintain his status as prime minister?
Yang, who gained national prominence during his surprisingly strong presidential campaign, is a top leader in the Democratic mayor, with a poll earlier this month showing him a big advantage over his competitors.
He is by far the best known candidate in the race, with 84% of respondents saying they have heard of him. Stringer is the second best known candidate, with a name recognition of 66%.
Now comes the hard part for Yang: maintaining first-team status.
While the entrepreneur maintains an expansive presence on social networks and an extremely loyal following, he came out of the gate with early blunders. Among other things, he rejected answers about why he lived in his suburban home during the pandemic and why he did not vote in the 2000 and 2012 presidential elections or every election of the mayor of New York between 2001 and 2017.
Beyond these mistakes, Yang also lacks the experience of governing at a time when voters could look to a firm hand to get them out of the pandemic.
“I think it will be very difficult for those who do not have a record in public service and intimate knowledge of the city to convince voters that they are the manager the city needs. So I think there is a built-in advantage for those who have been in government, which people know pre-pandemic and know in their community, not just from a zoom appearance, “Wylde said.
It is also possible that voter familiarity with other candidates will increase as more campaign ads appear.
“The benefit of recognizing Andrew Yang’s name disappears overnight when the air war begins,” said Eric Phillips, a former Blasio spokesman. “Can he stay ahead of a race when voters know the other candidates?” I’m skeptical. ”
What role will the mayoral election play?
For the first time this year, New York City is using the mayoral ballot. This means that if no candidate gets 50% or more of the votes in the first round, subsequent elections are considered until a candidate appears with the majority of votes.
This could lead to fewer negative attacks for fear of alienating another candidate’s supporters and can even lead to unusual alliances.
“People will trade to see how they support each other in first and second place,” Sheinkopf said.
Candidates who are better established in city politics can benefit from the new system.
“I think the by-election suggests that those who are most familiar with their past in basic New York City politics will benefit from a situation where people can say, ‘Well, this candidate, I’ve seen their commercial. and they even turned to me, so I’ll put them first, but I think it’s a safe bet to vote for another candidate who has long-term public service experience and who knows he’s never done anything outrageous, he’s a decent human being, whatever it is, “Wylde said.
Does a Republican have a chance at the general election?
The short answer is: Hardly at all.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a narrow margin of 7-1 in the city, and its blue hue deepened during the Trump administration. Outside of Staten Island, Republican victories in the city have become increasingly rare.
Wylde said a Republican would not stand a chance “unless there is an event that destroys the world.” When asked to clarify, she said that only an event of the same magnitude as the 9/11 terrorist attacks could shake the race enough to give a Republican a real blow.
Sheinkopf said more clearly: “A leading Republican should save his money and buy a house.”