If anything didn’t go wrong with the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Baylor Bears pencils for your March 2021 national support tournament on Sunday, it’s only because the NCAA tournament has traditionally given us so many surprises. (Almost missing Saturday night for UCLA was another reminder.) It couldn’t have been because someone doubted the abilities of the Zags or Bears, the nation’s top two teams in November (and maybe even November 2019), that will finally meet for the national championship on Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Maybe the canceled meeting between the two teams on December 5 was a blessing in disguise – we will see Mark Few’s team and Scott Drew’s team meeting for all the balloons.
Ahead of Monday night’s game, ESPN.com’s basketball team from Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi met to discuss the historical implications of Gonzaga vs. Baylor; the path for the Houston and UCLA teams they defeated in Saturday night’s Final Four; and the player matches we look forward to Monday at the Championship in Indy. Follow this link for the national championship rush hour on Monday and visit here to check out the March Madness brackets or Mars Madness brackets with a second chance.
This is Gonzaga vs. Baylor for the national championship, rarely a case in which the best two teams in the country reach the last stage of university basketball. What are the historical implications of 1 vs. 2 – are you ready to evaluate the place where this match is ranked in history or at least in recent history?
Medcalf: This feels somewhat unique because we are watching a game that could have been played last year if the NCAA tournament had not been canceled. As of November 8, 2019, Baylor has lost only five games. Gonzaga lost two in that stretch. On paper, I think it competes with the 2017 North Carolina-Gonzaga championship game, depending on where it is in the current hierarchy of the game.
After Kansas defeated Ohio in the Final Four in 2012, I think we all agreed that the Jayhawks deserved their shot in Kentucky. But I just didn’t have many two-year accumulations in a championship game in this era. Corey Kispert and Joel Ayayi were strong players a year ago at Gonzaga, and Drew Timme ended the 2019-20 season with an impressive string of outings. Jared Butler and MaCio Teague are back to pursue a title this season for Baylor. A tournament led by two teams anchored by key players from last season’s top teams only amplifies the build-up to Monday’s game. It is a rare thing in the unique age. This is not just the best two teams this season. They are the two most dominant programs in the last two years.
Borzello: I think the game I listened to would be the 2005 national championship game between Illinois and North Carolina. Illinois started the season with 29 straight wins and then won the Big Ten tournament before reaching the national championship, while North Carolina suffered four losses before the tournament, but was right there with Illinois above the rest of the country in metric. The difference between the two teams and Gonzaga and Baylor is that we knew that the latter would both be elite before the season, they lived up to expectations in the regular season and then headed for the title game. So I think this game is a little bigger than the 2005 game.
For me, Gonzaga is a good team from a generational point of view; and if we eliminate the fights after the COVID-19 break, Baylor is not so far behind. Baylor is 53-6 in the last two seasons, Gonzaga is 62-2 – and I think there are chances we have two undefeated teams that will meet in the title game, if not for a break. This should be the best paper match in recent history.
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Baylor’s Davion Mitchell forms a 3-pointer to end the first half which determines him and his teammates.
Gasaway: We often do not get clear distinctions between the first two and every other team in the country; and, of course, participating in the 2021 tournament, the AP poll said that “the first two” means Gonzaga and Illinois. But the tournament itself defines who the best teams are, and the Bulldogs and Baylor are clearly in Division I class. In terms of precedents in this century or immediately adjacent to it, North Carolina vs. Gonzaga comes to mind in 2017, as well as Duke vs. Wisconsin in 2015; Kansas Vs. Memphis in 2008; Florida Vs. Ohio State in 2007; North Carolina Vs. Illinois in 2005; and UConn vs. Duke in 1999. Those title games played two seeds no. 1 and, with only one or two small exceptions, they were all almost in the last minutes. Buckle, it should be wonderful.
Lunardi: With all due respect, but the NCAA tournament rarely determines the best team of a given season. It gives us a worthy champion, for sure, but the idea of ”the best” is more evasive. So far. Gonzaga and Baylor took part in a non-game collision course in December and will now decide both a worthy champion and the best team. The only better thing would be the best of the seven.
The road ended for the Houston and UCLA teams that made impressive runs through this tournament. Who do you think has a better chance of returning to the Final Four, Cougars or Bruins sooner?
Borzello: UCLA – and I think the Bruins will be chosen as a competitor in the Final Four as we start thinking about the rankings in the early 2021-22. Mick Cronin could bring back every player on this year’s team, assuming Chris Smith decides to return after breaking his ACL in the middle of this season and Johnny Juzang is not in the NBA draft. The Bruins are also bringing in a five-star prospect, Peyton Watson, who should have an immediate impact and offer insurance if one of the two players mentioned above decides to leave – or someone else surprisingly transfers. .
Houston could take a step back with DeJon Jarreau’s expected departures and a few players on the front field, while Quentin Grimes could also head to the NBA. With Kelvin Sampson at the helm and the way the Cougars defend, they should be ranked in the top 25 pre-season, but another Final Four seems like a stretch.
Gasaway: The last famous words here, but the Bruins seem to reach the sweet spot “will be very appreciated next season”. Mick Cronin has a team in the Final Four with zero seniors and also with zero players currently in the top 100 of ESPN’s NBA rankings. In Houston, Jarreau is a senior and was both the Cougars’ main defender and his best dealer. Jarreau will be difficult to replace.
Lunardi: It’s easy to see UCLA as a top-10 team in the pre-season next season, with Houston closer to “others receiving votes.” Of course, UCLA has already proven that rankings and rankings mean almost nothing when it comes to advances in March (or even April). I have no idea who’s going to make it to the Final Four, but it’s fair to say that the UCLA program is in a better overall position than Houston to book a return commitment.
Medcalf: I think UCLA, especially if Juzang comes back and Smith comes back from a knee injury at the end of the season. Bruins can gain momentum from this run and rely on it. I think it also improves the recruitment landscape for Mick Cronin’s program. “You can win a national title at UCLA” has not been a real thing in basketball for more than a decade. Now, it’s real. This is an incredible achievement in the second season for any coach.
But the UCLA brand, in good times, is strong, and the supporters of this program were waiting for another opportunity to support a competitor for the national title. But I also think Kelvin Sampson can make Houston a hub for a number of transfers to the portal. Jarreau and Grimes just led Houston to its first appearance in the national semifinals in 37 years. I think both teams will be competitive in the coming years.
We will save the score predictions for Monday, but which is the match between the players you expect the most in the national championship?
Borzello: Jalen Suggs vs. Davion Mitchell. Suggs is one of the top five players in the NBA project and has established himself as a truly special player, while Mitchell has increased his actions as much as anyone in the NCAA tournament. Mitchell tends to protect the opposing team’s top scorer, and Suggs fits. Mitchell has made life difficult for all sorts of perimeter players throughout the season, most recently Moses Moody and Quentin Grimes. However, Suggs has next level speed and explosiveness and will offer a completely different problem for Mitchell. At the other end, Suggs’ physicality can sometimes overwhelm opponents, and he’ll probably enjoy the chance to slow down Mitchell, assuming Suggs doesn’t protect Jared Butler.
Gasaway: Give me Mitchell vs. Suggs again and again and again. I just wish it was a series of seven games. Both players are designed as lottery options for 2021 by ESPN.com and both give their already great teams a whole new dimension. The funny thing about my perfectly hypothetical little match is that sometimes the wishes don’t come true. Mitchell is unlikely to protect Suggs exclusively, and I will be very interested to see how Scott Drew develops his defensive talent. I wouldn’t be too surprised, for example, to see Mitchell spend quality time on Andrew Nembhard. The Florida transfer leads Gonzaga in a few minutes during the tournament and he often has the ball in his hands in midfield, and Nembhard has been praised by Mark Few as one of the best players he has ever had in pick-and- roll.
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After UCLA’s Cody Riley is blocked on the rim, Drew Timme throws the block with two hands at the other end.
Lunardi: Definitely Mitchell on Suggs. Don’t you just see the veteran chasing the freshman in the last possession of a tie game? They’re not really Bird and Magic, but we’ll see them both on an NBA stage for a long, long time.
Medcalf: My colleagues are right. But I think the defenders of Mark Vital and Baylor against Drew Timme could decide the game. Throughout the season, I heard the same question about Baylor: Do the Bears have enough size and skill inside to beat a team built like Gonzaga? Vital is a big player for Scott Drew. He has 6 legs-5, with a lot of Chuck Hayes in his game. Vital is so physically strong that older players never push him. If Timme is dominant and Drew needs to find a way to send more help, he will create more space for the rest of Gonzaga’s players. It could also mean Drew needs to put Matthew Mayer in the game earlier. Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua will be critical in this game as well. But if Vital & Co. they can hold their strength against America’s top player, it will change the game. Timme will see a few defenders on Monday. It may not be the sexiest match in the game, but it is probably the most important.