Even with the race to vaccinate as many Americans as possible accelerating, some experts warn that if Americans do not follow the appropriate safety and mitigation measures, the US could see a resurgence of COVID-19.
Although the daily average of national cases continues to fall – about 32.5% in the last month – almost a third of all states have seen their average number of cases increase by at least 10%.
These 15 states are: Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon and West Virginia, according to an ABC News analysis of state data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Several states – Delaware, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon and West Virginia – have seen their average cases rise by at least 25 percent in the past week.
“Minnesota, I think, is really a harbinger of things to come. We’ve eased all the restrictions we’ve had, and in some ways we’re creating a perfect storm for the virus, whether it’s a variant or not.” Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist and head of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told ABC News on Wednesday for “World Tonight.”
Dr. Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at Kent State University College of Public Health, told ABC News that his “biggest concern” is the recurrence of the virus.
“I don’t expect to see anything as bad as we just recovered, but if we’re not careful, cases can increase again if we let our guard down too soon,” Smith said.
There are also 18 states – Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming – experiences a plateau, not a decline, in daily case environments.
Metropolitan areas, in particular, continue to struggle with high case rates. For weeks, New York City has led the nation in 100,000 cases, and last week New York City Councilor Dr. Jay Varma said two new COVID-19s – the UK and the NY – would it could now account for most of the city’s cases.
However, it is not yet clear whether these trends are blip or persistent risks with long-term consequences.
Smith believes a “confluence” of factors may be to blame, including the spread of COVID-19 variants and weakening health restrictions.
“The combination of rapid reopening, increased mobility and the spread of new COVID variants is likely to lead to an upward trend in cases in many parts of the country,” said Dr. John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital and ABC News contributor. While we should be optimistic about the launch of the vaccine, the new wave, albeit short-lived, is likely to lead to preventable hospitalizations and deaths.
According to data compiled by ABC News, in the last three weeks, more than two dozen states reopen or intend to do so, removing the restrictions imposed earlier in the pandemic.
US governors abide by relaxing rules regarding business and public assemblies.
Arizona and West Virginia, for example, allow restaurants and bars to reopen completely. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott issued several executive orders detailing plans to reopen Texas businesses and activities, tweeting, “I just announced that Texas is 100% OPEN.”
At least 17 states no longer have a mask mandate and even states such as Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and New York, which were previously among the most cautious, are reducing restrictions. On Friday, Connecticut plans to remove capacity limits for many companies, such as restaurants, retail stores, fitness centers next to places of worship.
In the coming weeks, New York will increase assembly capacity indoors and outdoors, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has announced that capacity restrictions will be lifted everywhere except large seats.
“The cases are smaller than in our big fall, the peak of winter and vaccinations are increasing, but we all need to be careful and realize that we have not yet come out of the woods,” Smith said.
However, other experts said they were not as concerned.
Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health researcher at Johns Hopkins University, told ABC News that while there is always the risk of a recurrence, especially in states that have lifted restrictions and masked warrants, “I usually don’t worry until I see two weeks. the upward trend in cases. “
Until the US begins expanding vaccinations to include other age and social groups, Nuzzo said he expects to see fluctuations in data. But, she added, if these trends continue, a sustained increase in the daily average of cases over two weeks would be a cause for concern, as many states are reduced to testing.
The US is now averaging just over 1 million tests a day, down from 1.8 million daily in January.
“I’m worried about the possibility that we’re missing a spread that could surprise us in a month or so, when it suddenly becomes very obvious,” Nuzzo said.
“We have observed throughout the pandemic that declining testing capacity creates unnecessary blind spots in our surveillance and likely results in delayed public health response,” Brownstein added.
The safest way to go, experts agree, is vaccinations and more vaccinations.
“The best way to get around the options is to continue to vaccinate as many people as possible and as effectively as possible while maintaining your public health measures,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the most influential, told ABC News. great expert on diseases of the nation. Tuesday.
To date, 12% of the total US population has been completely vaccinated and 22.2% have received at least one dose.
With approximately 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine expected to be in place by the end of May, more states are moving toward opening eligibility requirements to allow anyone 16 years of age or older to access them. .
Because vaccines have been shown to provide broad protection against a range of variants, Brownstein said. “These early warning signs reaffirm the need to support and even increase the pace of vaccination across the country.”