The sad part of the thousands of Americans who will die in the coming weeks of the coronavirus pandemic is that it doesn’t have to happen, according to a health expert.
“Any death we’re talking about this afternoon is preventable,” Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said Thursday. “None of this has to happen.
“We have the ability to stop these deaths, to get vaccines, to keep our masks, to distance ourselves socially. We just have to make everyone stay there for a few more weeks.”
As of Thursday afternoon, more than 328,000 people in the United States have died from Covid-19, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The seven-day average of deaths increases in 22 states compared to the previous seven-day average.
Experts fear that holiday gatherings will bring another wave of cases, followed by another wave of hospitalizations, followed by another wave of deaths.
“We can still save lives,” Hotez said. “No one should lose their life in the coming weeks and months. However, it is a difficult message to convey.”
Deaths are estimated to reach 567,000 by April
More than 1 million people have received the first vaccine against a Covid-19 vaccine, but an influential model of coronavirus predicts that the death toll in the US will rise by more than half a million, exceeding 567,000 by April 1.
The latest projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment at the University of Washington finds that the number could continue to explode to 731,000 by April 1 if states lighten mandates to contain the new coronavirus.
But more than 33,000 lives could be saved by the projected launch of the vaccine, IHME said, and 45,000 could be saved if the launch was faster.
Across the country, the use of masks has increased to 74%, IHME said. If it were to increase to 95%, there could be 49,000 fewer deaths by April 1.
The latest IHME model comes as the US has hoped to launch its newly licensed Covid-19 vaccines. Operation Warp Speed has delivered about 9.5 million doses and delivered at least 1 million doses since early Wednesday, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Given that cases of Covid-19 continue to grow nationally, this achievement comes at a critical time and will help protect those on the front lines – our healthcare providers who treat patients with COVID-19 – as well as the most vulnerable: the elderly living in nursing homes and assisted living facilities, “said CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield.
Vaccinations may not come too soon for California, which became the first state to hit 2 million cases of coronavirus late Wednesday – more than all but a few countries – less than six weeks after the state hit 1 million cases on November 12 Given the state’s population of 39.5 million, about 1 in 20 people in California tested positive for the virus.
The state’s 7-day positivity rate now stands at 12.6%, a slight decrease from previous weeks. However, 55 of California’s 58 counties remain in the most restrictive purple level of the state’s Covid-19 reopening system, which has led to the closure of many non-essential home business operations.
Gov. Gavin Newsom attributed the recent increase in cases of people relaxing their physical efforts to distance themselves and gathering with people outside their households, especially during the holidays.
A total of 23,558 Californians have died from complications caused by the disease since the beginning of the pandemic.
“We have an end in sight”
In all, the United States reported 228,131 new coronavirus cases and 3,359 new deaths on Wednesday, the third number of deaths in a single day. This is a devastating “normal” for the US, which has averaged about 215,000 new cases and more than 2,700 new deaths every day in the past week.
Dr. Andrew Pastewski, medical director of the intensive care unit at Jackson South Medical Center in Miami, attributed the increase in cases to his Thanksgiving hospital.
“And with the holidays coming up, we are very scared of what we are going to see,” Erica Hill told CNE.
But with the vaccine, “we have a purpose in sight,” Pastewski said.
The government has said it intends to distribute the first 20 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines in the coming weeks, a little later than originally planned.
“It’s been a great week of vaccine delivery,” General Gustave Perna, chief operating officer of Operation Warp Speed, told reporters on Wednesday. “More than 7,800 deliveries by the end of tomorrow, as we deliver the 7.9 million doses of vaccine that have been allocated for this week across the country – truly an extraordinary feat.”
Perna said about 15.5 million doses of the vaccine have been allocated and another 4.5 to 5 million will be allocated next week.
“We will complete these deliveries in the first week of January,” he said.
In addition, health workers have found that the Pfizer vaccine, an ice cream solution that is diluted with saline before being given to humans, can produce more than the five doses originally thought.
As such, Perna said the auxiliary kits delivered with the vaccine are adjusted with additional supplies to match a possible sixth dose.
“We have adjusted our contract and kit construction to … provide even more capacity as we move forward,” Perna said on Wednesday.
He noted that the kit already had a bit of “extra capacity” built in and that most vaccine administration currently takes place in hospitals “where they have access to syringes and needles accordingly”.
“So feel very comfortable with the availability of syringes and needles and our ability to put these sets together and continue the simultaneous distribution of vaccine kits,” he said.