After a sharp decline in daily cases of COVID-19 in New York, daily infections remain stubborn at 3,700.
The stagnation coincides with the arrival of a tempting suspect on stage: a variant known as B1526 that first appeared in Upper Manhattan in November.
According to the latest data, as of February 23, the variant represented approximately 34 percent of the coronavirus samples from New York State tested to see if they contain any variant spread in the USA, according to outbreak.info.
This is a fivefold increase from a week earlier, when only six percent of New York samples submitted to the national GISAID database were positive for B1256 mutations.
But this dramatic increase is not the whole story. The US is also finally stepping up this type of testing – which requires scientists to sequence the entire genome of a virus sample – making it more likely to find its way.
Virologists warn against these hypotheses, especially when the New York version is so new and still being researched.
But the NYC variant contains mutations observed in others that are better at infecting humans, and its increasing prevalence could threaten to drive COVID-19 backups to New York as previous declines stop.
The “New York” variant, B1526, was detected in 34% of the samples in the state that were tested for mutations, an increase of five times compared to the previous week, when it was detected in only 6% of the samples in New York.
New COVID-19 cases remain stubbornly high in New York, where the 7-day average of cases is 3,700
It also comes amid the administrative chaos of New York.
In addition to facing allegations of sexual misconduct, Governor Andrew Cuomo is also being investigated for hiding data on the real burden of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes.
And getting a clear picture of the evolution of the pandemic in New York has become increasingly difficult in the months since Cuomo briefly became a bastion of transparency due to its daily COVID sessions.
Now, the New York State Department of Health reports that there were 7,593 new positive tests on Wednesday.
The state registered 4,025 cases in New York that day.
New York City has stopped reporting daily cases on its health department website, but Mayor Bill de Blasio wrote on Twitter that the city saw 3,270 new COVID-19 cases yesterday.
Meanwhile, data from Johns Hopkins University yesterday showed 6,564 new cases in New York State.
Therefore, it is not clear exactly how many new cases of coronavirus existed yesterday in the city or state, but regardless of the data used, the decrease in cases has decreased.
The New York variant was first detected in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Upper Manhattan in mid-November.
It is believed that he had a chance to develop in a person who had AIDS in advance.
Scientists have warned that there are two main opportunities for the virus to take on significant mutations that lead to new strains: high rates of infections and infections in immunocompromised patients, in which the virus can persist longer, “learn” the human immune system and can develop mutations that help him survive the boring attacks in our bodies.
The prevalence of the variant also increased in the USA as a whole, representing over 30% of the tested samples. But Outbreak.info notes that there were fewer samples sent recently, which may distort the prevalence of the variant
The variant was identified just as New York entered the second increase in COVID-19 infections, which also coincides with the holiday season, making the variant unlikely to be responsible. of that increase in cases.
But now, when B1526 cases double every month, according to data from outbreak.info, it could contribute to the stable and high rate of general cases in New York.
There have been significant decreases in cases across the country. Experts believe it is caused by several causes: the presence of more transmissible and infectious variants, such as the B117 form in the UK, “pandemic fatigue” among Americans who are tired of wearing masks and staying home and restrictions are relaxed in many state.
Variant B117 is certainly the most common mutant in the US (apart from the wild type).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed at least 2,500 cases of B117 in 46 states and predicted in January that the variant would become dominant this March.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky issued a strong warning about the spread of variants: “Please hear me clearly: at this level of cases with variants spreading, we will completely lose the hard-won ground we have won. “She told WHite House on Monday.
At least one case of the New York variant has been identified each in Sint Maarten, Japan, Singapore, Croatia, Ireland and the United Kingdom, in addition to the 1,113 found in the United States, according to Outbreak.info
The variant was detected in 22 states, including Texas, MIssissippi, New Mexico, Wyoming, New Jersey and Michigan.
“These options are a very real threat to our people and our progress. Now is not the time to relax the critical safeguards we know could stop the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, not when we are so close.
Variants from South Africa and Brazil are now also in the USA. There are at least 65 cases of variant B1351 in South Africa and 10 cases of variant P1 of Brazil in America.
So could origin variants be a threat to progress in the states in which they emerged?
Dr. Anthony Fauci certainly entertains this possibility.
He warned that the New York version was “gaining ground” and said the Biden administration was “taking it very seriously” at Wednesday’s news conference.
There is still no solid evidence that the variant is more transmissible or more deadly.
But its mutations suggest that variant B1526 is more capable of infecting human cells.
It has mutations at the E484K and S477N locations throughout its genome.
Laboratory tests and observations of variants with these mutations suggest that they make it difficult to detect the virus and improve it when infecting human cells.
Between the “California” and “New York” variants, the New York variant is “more interesting” for the immunologist of the Scripps Research University, Dr. Kristian Andersen, he said in a Twitter thread.
Like the South African and Brazilian variants, the New York variant seems to “escape some Ab [antibody] immunity, in a part of the country with high levels of immunity ‘, wrote Dr. Andersen, referring to the fact that a high proportion of New Yorkers already had COVID-19, since the Great Sea became the epicenter of the pandemic in the spring of last.
It is still too early to say whether the version supports the number of cases in New York, but Dr. Anderson wrote that it certainly justifies the investigation.
And with the reported version now identified in 22 states, the answer to this question could have national implications.
But it’s essential to keep in mind that while all of the scientists’ biggest concerns about the New York version turn out to be true, it still hasn’t proven to be more transmissible – meaning masks and social distancing will still work – it doesn’t seem like it. to make people sick or more likely to die and is unlikely to completely evade immunity and vaccine-induced antibodies.
In short: the version is worth watching and worrying about, but don’t panic.
