He sighed, here we are again.
Another community event in Destiny 2, another miscalculation of what will be needed to do it, and Bungie may have to step in to make sure this doesn’t end in total failure.
At this point, Destiny 2’s Dawning event is a community event that requires players to generate “Dawning Spirit”. This is done through rewards from Eva Levante, by giving gifts to NPCs, and finally from a ship that generates Spirit on drops of ingredients.
You can watch the progress of the game directly, but the longer it takes, the less it seems that the community will be able to reach the data mark for the final step, 1 billion Dawning Spirit.
Here’s the math:
At the time of writing this early Saturday, the community generated 148 million Dawning Spirit, according to applications that track the exact number, as opposed to the percentage that appears in the game. To rotate to be closer to the reset, suppose 150 million.
150 million took four days to generate, so it’s 37.5 million a day.
There are 15 days left for the event, which ends on January 5.
So 15 x 37.5 million = 562.5 million + 150 million = 712 million, which is not close to 1 billion. We would need something like eight extra days at the current rate to reach 1 billion.
You can tell that the Dawning Spirit generation will grow once people unlock the ship and use it. And yet I wonder how many people will A) get so far and B) equip that ship in place of their usual favorite. And I also think that any winnings from this will be offset by fewer people playing The Dawning as time goes on. At this point I have cultivated enough holiday weapons and I have obtained enough triumphs to more or less finish the event at my end and I suspect that I am not alone. Farming Dawning Spirit to contribute 0.001% to this goal does not seem worth the time, especially with the backlog I have elsewhere.
Of course, this is reminiscent of the community event in Season of the Worthy, where Bungie overestimated how many public events people wanted to do and had to change requirements / generation accordingly. Here, if nothing changes or if there is a sudden explosion of interest, the community is on the verge of failing by a fairly wide margin. The current target of 250 million will be met, and 500 million is also guaranteed. But if that doubles again to 1 billion as it should, there is no way. Not even 750 million will happen.
So if Bungie doesn’t let us fail, he’ll have to reduce the future requirements of the mission, or he’ll have to somehow raise the Dawning Spirit generation. We don’t know what the final prize of the event is, but this one could be something cool as a catalyst and we wouldn’t want to lose that.
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