The New York Knicks are in an interesting place before the deadline for 2021. They have more maximum space ($ 15.7 million) than any other team, giving them the ability to add substantial salary to a transaction without having to to send back in return. Besides them, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are the two teams in a similar position, due to their big commercial exceptions.
Entering the season, it seemed that New York could use the ceiling space to store additional project options in exchange for bad contracts. But with Tom Thibodeau’s team currently seventh in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are now a team that could use the term to increase their chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
Should New York approach the deadline as an opportunity to update the list for the next two months? Or is it better for the Knicks to stick to a long-term construction plan around All-Star Julius Randle, second-year RJ Barrett wing, center Mitchell Robinson and promising debutant Immanuel Quickley?
ESPN NBA analysts Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton are debating how New York should approach the trading deadline.
What is the value of Knicks lid space?
Bobby: The Knicks are in pole position at the deadline with their cover space. How they use that $ 15.7 million will depend on whether they want to buy players, change players or combine a combination of both.
New York can act as the third team in a trade to take over the unwanted salary, something that only teams with big commercial exceptions (Oklahoma City, for example) could do otherwise. For example, any team interested in the center of the Cleveland Cavaliers, Andre Drummond, and his $ 28.7 million salary, should probably send three to four players to make the money work. Because of the list restrictions (up to 15 players), Cleveland would recruit New York as the third team to take back one or two contracts, also throwing in drafts or maybe a player who fits the development schedule of the game. New York.
The Knicks could also reclaim a contract and a draft pick if a team wants to remove a spot from the roster to sign a player who has been purchased. A team like Philadelphia has 15 players under contract and could replace Terrance Ferguson along with a second-round selection in New York to open up a roster spot. However, the Knicks also have 15 players under contract and would have to eat the salary of a player like Austin Rivers to make this work.
Earlier trade terms have seen luxury tax teams change players for the main purpose of saving money. The Warriors could trade Kelly Oubre Jr.’s $ 14.37 million contract and save nearly $ 70 million in taxes – though that number is likely to be reduced after the league calculates the post-pandemic success of basketball-related revenue for this season.
One thing to keep in mind is that this is not a use or loss scenario for New York. Although the space for caps does not move until the 2021-22 season, the Knicks are allowed to use their room until the beginning of the new year of the 2021-2022 league, probably starting in early August.
Kevin, with New York, is currently in the top six, isn’t it important for this team to stay in the accumulation mode?
Knicks finish design
Kevin: Besides the fact that the Knicks have played so far this season, the chances are still against a deep playoff round. In terms of the points differential, New York ranks fifth out of eight teams separated by four games in the Eastern Conference ranking from fourth to 11th. Knicks also has the eighth hardest program left in the NBA, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). As a result, BPI-based projections still give New York only a 17.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. (The FiveThirtyEight model is a little more optimistic, giving the Knicks a 30% chance.)
Because the East is so open and even a trip to the play-in tournament would be a highlight for the franchise in the post-Carmelo Anthony era, I think it’s reasonable for New York to be in the acquisition mode. But with a bench that has already turned out to be surprisingly deep, I’d rather use the headroom to get a bad contract rather than try to pursue a short-term upgrade along the line of New Orleans Pelicans goalie JJ Redick.
Is there a way for Knicks to achieve both of their goals, either by sharing their cover space or by concluding a long-term contract?
Options for Knicks
Bobby: As I mentioned above, if Philadelphia wants to open a roster, New York should be in the front line for a player like Terrance Ferguson or Vincent Poirier, who will both be free agents this summer. The same goes if Dallas is trying to create additional ceiling flexibility in 2021-22 by moving Dwight Powell, who is owed $ 11.1 million in 2021-22 and $ 11.1 million in 2022-23. If the Knicks could buy more second-round options or even get the Mavericks to eliminate the protection of choice (the top 10) for the first time they owe New York in 2023, it would be worth reducing the space. limit ($ 45 million to $ 34 million in 2021 22). The 2021 free agent class is, at best, average, and New York would be smart to follow the same plan as of last November (one-year free agent contracts) and participate in any long-term acquisitions.
The Knicks do not currently have an open roster, but could easily give up Ignas Brazdeikis (the team’s option for 2021-22, played 7 minutes this season) or Austin Rivers (unsecured contract in 2021-22 and 2022- 23, hasn Not played since February 13) to create space if they want to recover a contract that a team is looking to get rid of.
Kevin, where would you draw the line in the sand when it comes to the availability of Knicks’ five expired contracts (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock) and their two former lottery selections (Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina)? I know you would go in the direction of using ceiling space to take back bad contracts, but how about collecting additional options for their free pending agents?
Kevin: I think I’m a little more willing than you to encourage New York to go to the playoffs this year. In the long run, it would probably be wise to withdraw Rose for value and cash in on their immense free agents. But this is the most interesting time to be a Knicks fan in recent years, so even if I want people to be realistic about the possibility of the team falling in the standings, it seems like too much buzzkill.
Payton would be an exception to this rule. If New York can get something for him, it would make sense to move on. The Knicks went 4-1 during the five games Payton recently missed, despite Rose coming off the line for the final two (including a 26-point loss to San Antonio).
I would also be ready to move Knox and Ntilikina if other teams appreciate them more as draft positions than their current places outside of New York’s full rotation. In the fourth season, Ntilikina has yet to show the offensive chops to project as more than a fourth guard. And while Knox’s 40% 3-point shooting in a limited sample (75 tries) is encouraging, the rest of his game has stagnated.
Let’s end this with a look ahead this summer. Bobby, you mentioned that the Knicks project will have $ 45 million in maximum space on a weak market. How should you think about using this in addition to taking on long-term contracts ahead of time?
Knicks’ summer of 2021 and beyond
Bobby: The days of the New York rankings in the last four rankings of the future power seem to be over. The Knicks are well stocked and heading into the offseason, with a $ 45 million projected room, two first-round picks (their choice and the Mavericks’ pick) and a second from Detroit (which equals the late first). to add Barrett and Randle’s foundation.
Unfortunately, unrestricted free agents (LeBron James, Paul George, Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo) signed extensions before the start of the season. This leaves New York with a group of players ranging from Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroder, Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, Evan Fournier and restricted free agent Lonzo Ball.
The first line of thought is to decide what to do with Mitchell Robinson’s $ 1.8 million team option. If he exercises the option, Robinson will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022, so to protect himself in the long run, the smart thing is to turn down the option and offer Robinson a qualification offer. This would make him a restricted free agent, and because of its limited capacity of $ 2.1 million, New York can first use the capitalization space and then go back to sign it.
They also decided to offer Randle an extension of up to four years, with $ 106 million. With Randle playing as an All-Star, I’m inclined to believe that the striker will pass that number on and wait until he’s a free agent in 2022 to cash in.
I’d rather stick with the short-term plan: sign their own free agents (Burks, Noel and Bullock) on a two-year contract with a team option in the second year, or see if a player like Lowry would bite into a contract on one year, $ 25 million. Doug McDermott intrigues me with a high salary in the first year, but flexibility in the second year.
I know the safe approach of this off-season is not appealing, but if New York can play the waiting game, it will be able to land two max free agents in 2022 or take advantage when the next unhappy All-Star wants to leave. The 2022 free agent class could consist of All-Stars Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Zach LaVine. Unlike the 2019 off-season, when they missed Durant and Irving, there is a solid foundation (similar to where Brooklyn was then) to attract franchised players.
Kevin, what do you think New York is going through this offseason?
Kevin: We are in step on what the Knicks should do. Even if the class of free agents in 2022 dries up along the lines of what we saw with this year’s long-awaited free agency, flexibility will be worth maintaining as long as New York has more young players on beginner contracts. If nothing else, short-term transactions will be easier to include as an equivalent salary if a star becomes available through trading.
Of course, Knicks’ story is full of team examples that overreact to the taste of success and abandon long-term plans. We will have a better idea until March 25 if the new president of the team, Leon Rose, can keep the line and see through a plan that has been executed well so far.