For the first time in more than 60 years, Cuba is poised to have a government without a single Castro.
Raúl Castro, who succeeded his brother Fidel as first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba in 2011, is expected to step down as the country kicks off its eighth Communist Party Congress on Friday.
“We all expect the old generation to step down from all of its functions within the party, including Raúl as its first secretary,” said Ricardo Torres Pérez, an economics professor at the University of Havana.
“That’s important in itself. It marks the end of an era.”
But while the end of Castro’s rule is historic, few are convinced that the shift in leadership will lead to profound changes for the island state or its relationship with the US.
Castro is expected to leave party leadership in the hands of President Miguel Díaz-Canel, while the rest of the politburo will not be filled with the youngest generation most longing for change, but with middle-aged party leaders born in the aftermath of the revolution.
“This is not a dynastic transition – the new leadership, although shaped by the Castro brothers and their legacy, is the next generation of the Cuban Communist Party, not the next generation of the Castro family,” said Geoff Thale, president of the United States. Washington Office for Latin America.
“The generation change is going fairly smoothly; there will be no major disagreements or political conflicts at the convention. “
The shift in leadership comes as Cuba has struggled to implement many of the economic reforms agreed at the 2011 party congress. Last year’s COVID-19 pandemic has also crushed an economy heavily reliant on tourism.
Fulton Armstrong, a former Director of Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council who worked on Cuba issues at the State Department, the White House and the Senate, said Díaz-Canel’s ability to push for more reforms will depend on whether other old guard party members also resign.
He pointed to José Ramón Machado Ventura and Ramiro Valdés Menéndez, both now in their eighties, who held a number of posts in the leadership of the Communist Party.
“The question is not whether the politburo will become Castro-less,” Armstrong said. “The question is whether they will also retire at the politburo. Those guys are known as hardliners, but they are also just plain hard. ”
The government is pursuing its most profound economic reforms since the early 1990s, when Cuba fell into severe recession after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The reforms, including the introduction of a common currency for both locals and foreigners, were considered necessary for economic growth by the relatively young 60-year-old Díaz-Canel.
“Anything that boosts production, removes barriers and benefits the producer is beneficial,” Díaz-Canel said recently of the reforms’ effects on agriculture, Reuters said.
But that relatively liberal position could meet with resistance if the old guard strengthens its power in Congress.
“If they stay, I would say that’s bad news for Díaz-Canel,” said Torres Pérez. “Because he will still have to sell his proposals to people like her who are not in favor of radical reform.”
The tension, Armstrong said, is that Díaz-Canel’s generation understands the party is seeing a diminishing number of people looking to join its ranks.
“The number of people who come in as aspirants and become militants has gone down. The youngsters want to be part of something exciting versus an exact sphincter-like control over people’s lives, ”he said.
“The generation of Díaz-Canel, the generation that is 60 years old, the ‘young-ins’, they know that. They know they need to improve that vision to capture your over 30s and over 40s and really move them forward. “
Any slow reform in Cuba is likely to be matched by a Biden administration unwilling to change relations between Cuba and the US.
Biden handily lost to Florida President Trump
Donald Trump Biden Administration Still Takes Land Near Border Despite Plans To Stop Building Wall: Illinois House Report Passes Bill Mandating Asian-American History Lessons in Schools. Nightly Defense: Government Says ‘Low to Medium Confidence’ Russia Behind Afghanistan Troop Bounties | ‘Low to medium risk’ of Russia invading Ukraine in the coming weeks | Intelligence leaders face sharp questions during global threats from the House in the 2020 election, and Florida has been a loser to Biden’s party in statewide elections in recent years.
Her. Bill Nelson
Clarence (Bill) William Nelson Why does Rep. Johnson opposes NASA’s commercial human landing system? Trump gives Rubio coveted reelection approval in Florida Nightly defense: Top House Armed Services Republican National Guard talks in Capitol, Afghanistan, more | Pentagon Head Visits Afghanistan During Government Discussion | Saudis propose Yemen to strike MORE (D-Fla.) Lost his bid for re-election in 2018, two years later Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton Chelsea Clinton: Photos of Trump’s Vaccination Would Help Him ‘Claim Credit’ Why does Bernie Sanders want to destroy Elon Musk’s dreams? Republican lawmakers are focusing MORE on private sector election subsidies lost the state to Trump.
That’s after the Obama-Biden ticket won Florida in both 2008 and 2012.
Obama’s rapprochement with Cuba was designed in part to win over the younger generation of Cuban voters in South Florida. And it showed some signs of success in 2018, when the party turned two competitive seats in South Florida.
But Trump’s strong stance on Cuba – a rejection of Obama’s openness to the island’s communist regime – contributed to the Republicans’ 2020 comeback in Florida, as Trump beat Biden by more than three percentage points and the GOP retook two seats from the House.
The political calculus, combined with virtually no democratization after the rapprochement on the island, has made little sense for the Biden administration to resume Obama’s reforms.
Joe Biden
Joe BidenBiden’s administration is still taking land near the border despite plans to stop building a wall: Olympics report, climate on the agenda for Biden meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Boehner on Afghanistan: ‘It it’s time to withdraw the troops’ MORE is not Barack Obama
Barack Hussein ObamaBiden Can Make History On Nuclear Weapons Reduction Biden Has Nearly 90-Point Approval Gap Between Democrats And Republicans: Poll The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented By Tax March – CDC In Uncertain About J&J Vax Verdict; Representative Brady is retiring MORE about policy towards Cuba, ”Juan Gonzalez, senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council, recently told CNN en Español.
Díaz-Canel’s own political considerations limit his scope, even though he has shown a penchant for continuity in his time sharing power with Castro.
Realistically, the change will remain evolutionary. There will be change that will be significant over time, but it will not be dramatic and it will not be pleasing to the US right wing, ”said Armstrong.
“But many people believe that what Cuba needs is gradual change, not an implosion or explosion,” he added.