Dr. Ashish K Jha (pictured), dean of Brown University School of Public Health, issued a warning about new “super-covide” variants
A top public health expert says new “super-covide” variants could make the US coronavirus pandemic up to five times more deadly.
The new strain, known as B.1.1.7 – which was first detected in the UK – has now infected at least 37 people in seven states and at least 30 countries.
Meanwhile, a close cousin has been found in South Africa, the United Kingdom and at least seven other nations – but not yet in the United States.
It is feared to be up to 70 percent more transmissible and easier to spread among children.
Dr. Ashish K Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health, says the new variant is “significantly more infectious,” there could be up to 10 million new infections in the United States and up to 150,000 deaths by the end of the year. February.
Because of this, he argues that the US should also delay the administration of a second dose of coronavirus vaccine and, in return, provide as many initial Americans as possible.
In a press release, Jha wrote that a significant increase in COVID-19 infection rates will create a much more lethal pandemic, despite the fact that the new variants do not make patients sick.
He refers to an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who hypothetically compared a strain that was 50% more contagious to one that was 50% more deadly in a On Twitter.
The B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK has now infected at least 37 people in seven states (above), while the strain found in South Africa has not yet reached the US
Jha warns that the pandemic could become five times more deadly, as the new variants will infect more people faster and overwhelm hospitals. Pictured: Walter Smith, a respiratory therapist, gives oxygen to a COVID-19 patient before intubating him in the ICU at Uniontown Hospital in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, December 16
He recommends that officials delay the administration of a second dose of coronavirus vaccine so that as many people as possible can receive at least one dose. Pictured: A bottle of Modern COVID-19 vaccine on a table before use in Topeka, Kansas, December 30
The epidemiologist found that in a city with 10,000 infections, the 50% deadliest strain would lead to about 193 new deaths after a month of spread.
However, the 50% more transmissible variant would lead to 978 new deaths after one month, which is equivalent to a fivefold increase.
“Because a lower mortality rate in a very large number of cases causes far more deaths than a higher mortality rate, but a lower number of cases,” Jha explained in the press release.
“It is estimated that the new strain represents approximately [one percent] of all infections at this time, but due to its increased contagion, the best estimates are that it will reach most of all new infections by March.
Jha says urgent aggressive action is needed to limit the spread of the new strain, as many health systems face a severe shortage of beds and resources.
“This new more infectious variant will change the underlying dynamics of the pandemic, the exponential growth of infections making the virus much more difficult to contain and overloading our stressed health system.
“The US health care system is already stunning under the pandemic caused by the current (old) strain,” he wrote.
Some suggestions include tightening restrictions on indoor gatherings and conducting a large number of rapid tests in schools, offices and homes.
“We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain catches on, we will see another 10 million infections in the US between now and the end of February, and in that time, we could easily see another 100,000 by 150,000 deaths, ‘he wrote.
But perhaps most importantly, Jha says the Trump administration needs to step up vaccination efforts nationwide.
The government’s current policy is to retain about half of the available supply to ensure that people receive a second dose.
However, Jha says officials must prioritize by making sure as many Americans as possible can receive at least one dose – especially the elderly – and then the second dose can be given when more vaccines come out of the vaccine line. production.
Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that vaccines do not work against new variants and a single stroke has been found to be at least 50% effective in preventing COVID-19 infection.
The UK has already opted for this, postponing the second dose from both Pfizer and Oxford / AstraZeneca University, so that a wider group of people can receive the first photos.
Between fewer vaccines approved for the expected New Year, rising infection rates and the threat of new variants, Jha calls for immediate action.
“It’s essential to overcome this as it catches on in the United States,” he wrote.
“If we act aggressively now, we can avoid the worst case scenario of suffering, death and more economic damage that awaits us in the coming months.”